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The Case for Kanye

08/23/2032

Following Kanye West’s surprise tweet on July 4th announcing his run for president, there have been a number of media reports, such as the most recent article in Fortune, saying that he is now hedging on this year or four years from now. This from Fortune on July 8th:

"Even West has hedged his campaign a bit. “Let’s see if the appointing is at 2020 or if it’s 2024—because God appoints the President,” he told Forbes. “If I win in 2020 then it was God’s appointment. If I win in 2024 then that was God’s appointment.”

So, regardless of how you may feel about West’s chances to be elected president, let’s think about the political considerations he should carefully weigh, should he be leaning toward delaying his effort. We believe his time to run is now. Not 2024. We will explain in detail.

(Again, we emphasize that in considering this article, you should set aside your calculations on the odds of his success. And with regard to his not being able to get on the ballot, or having missed deadlines in some states, we assure you that that is NOT a done deal. Kanye, with the right legal counsel, can easily make a case to get on the ballot in all 50 states—based on precedent already established around the country as a result of COVID-19 phenomenon.)

The Case for Kanye 2020—and NOT 2024

Anyone advising West must take some extremely important facts into consideration before he opts out of the 2020 run. Here are some of them:

  • The 2020 presidential campaign, just as was the case in 2016, represents a unique situation: For the second consecutive election, both major parties appear ready to nominate candidates who are both strenuously and angrily, and hostilely, opposed by enormous segments of the voting population.
  • Trump, for myriad reasons, not all attributable to him (though a number are), is absolutely loathed by more than 50% of the voters.
  • Biden, for at least half the population (perhaps even more, even though they are prepared to vote for him) represents a walking, talking embodiment of the 25th Amendment—in other words, he would be a president who would very probably have to be removed by a vote of a majority of the cabinet prior to the end of his term.
  • Trump, despite a vast array of significant accomplishments, and despite continuous missteps by his opponents, has steadfastly and stubbornly continued to shoot himself in the foot without provocation:

As just one recent example, Trump gave an excellent, unifying speech (off a TelePrompTer) at Mount Rushmore. It was falsely reported the media, which remains fixed in their purpose to defeat him, but people who watched or can access it can still see the speech for themselves.

The speech quite properly noted the veneration and honor afforded true American heroes, and at no point did it refer even tangentially to “Confederates” or any other controversial figures.

However, the very next day, while riding high with a majority of Americans approving that speech, Trump got away from the TelePrompTer and the wise authors of the speech, and started tweeting about Bubba Wallace (who had not been heard from in three weeks and was a dead letter) and to boot, he added in, of all things, the Confederate Flag.

Boom, he immediately and thoughtlessly stepped on his own positive story.

We (who supported him in November 2016 and support his reelection) have documented numerous times these kinds of unforced errors and ham-handed blunders that have prevented him from enjoying the kind of approval he should enjoy—considering the successes he has had.

  • By all indications now, Trump is never ever going to understand that his target audience is NOT the Trumpistas who will be with him no matter what he says or even does.
  • He doesn’t understand that they represent only about 30-33% of the voting population. He has to add to them the orthodox Republicans who provided him another 13% to 16% of the vote in 2016 and who will almost certainly stay with him this time as well.
  • Crucially, Trump, to be safe, has to add at least another 3 or 4 percent of the voters who either voted for third parties in 2016, or who self-loathingly voted for Clinton. He has wasted almost 3½ years ignoring electoral reality.
  • Biden also cannot give a coherent, on-message speech unless he has a TelePrompTer. His off-the-cuff comments, or unaided comments, are potentially even more damaging than Trump’s in that people can readily recognize the signs of dementia and mental incapacity”

“We hold these truths to be ‘selfle’ evident, all men and women created by the go you know you know the thing.”

[Editor’s Note: Yes, we know the “thing,” and the thing is you should stay in the basement under wraps, for the duration.]

 

Additionally, there are these considerations:

  • Trump, even if he were to be re-elected, is term-limited. He will not be on the ballot in 2024.
  • Biden, if he somehow wins, has pledged to serve only one term—a term he almost certainly would not complete anyway. He will also not be on the ballot in 2024, no matter what.

On that note, we would also add that we still believe there is likely to be some active, ongoing consternation among Democrat leaders who realize “we cannot really go with him as the nominee.”

[Editor’s Note: We believe that the strategy of “hidin’ Biden” right now, while aimed at keeping him from making impromptu or extemporaneous remarks—is aimed by his handlers at Democrat leaders and delegates as much as it is aimed at the general public.

What Would Kanye—or any Independent—Face in 2024?

With Biden, Trump, and Clinton eliminated from consideration, 2024 will provide both major parties a great opportunity to begin anew—to nominate a completely clean slate. I will be wide open for an intelligent, articulate, politically-savvy, and very appealing candidate.

Can the major parties blow it? Of course they can. But they are learning. They are watching all of this unfold, and the motivation and the incentive for getting it right will be at an all-time high.

If they both present attractive candidates that have popular appeal—or even if only one of the parties does so—say, a Nikki Haley for the Republicans, or maybe a Kyrsten Sinema for the Democrats—then that would be devastating for any third option candidate.

The entire appeal that Kanye West enjoys right now would disappear in a poof of smoke. His candidacy’s entire rationale would be gone.

The opportunity for 2020—with both major parties having nominated either hugely reviled or ridiculed candidates—will not pass this way again.

If Kanye West, or any other celebrity independent has a “moment,” that moment is now.

Does Kanye have a Chance? To win? Or to Make an Impact?

The United States has never been as polarized as we are today since 1861. Even interpersonal political discourse among family and friends is often reported to be polarizing, even friendship-ending and family-splitting. We seem to be in chaos.

While normal calculations would say that West’s chances of winning are quite remote, that is not the only way in which he, or someone like him, can make a significant impact. His chances of making an impact—a significant impact—appear to be quite high.

Just look at his tweet which unexpectedly announced his candidacy last Saturday, July 4th. It attracted an amazing 1.2 million Likes and 530,000 retweets.

Look at the comparison between Kanye, Trump, and Biden since July 4th:

                Highest Likes    Most Retweets

Trump           234K                 58K

Biden             265K                 41K

Kanye         1.200K               535K

Bottom Line

There is no real enthusiasm for either major party candidate—beyond the hardcore dedicated Trumpistas on the one hand, and the similarly hardcore Democrat base (about the same 30% or so) of their base on the other hand.  

Should Kanye West—or someone similarly situated—seriously consider a run, the time is now. Not 2024.

We are not saying West is serious about this undertaking. We have no idea if he is or not. Media reports disagree or contradict each other. And it appears his announcement tweet may have been deleted. So all of that is obviously an open question.

But if Kanye were to consider running, well, his time is now.

Our point is that we have never had an election like this before (although a reasonably similar case can be made for 2016).

We are unlikely to pass this way again.



Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

Religious Issues

  • Religious Issues
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