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Preview for Tomorrow: 2016 Legislative Races.

02/26/2015

Are Rep. Egolf & Sen. Sanchez Correct? When they say there's no need to Listen to the Voters?   Just Vote Down All Reforms!  "This is Just a 2-year Experiment."           But is that all True? 

On Wednesday, January 21, House Minority Leader Brian Egolf (D-Santa Fe) said Republicans shouldn’t get too comfortable in their new role.  Sitting in a committee meeting and clearly annoyed about losing a vote—and being in a minority for the first time in his life—Egolf angrily (and now famously) blurted out:

“This is a two-year experiment and the state of New Mexico gets to see what happens with a Republican majority,"  Egolf said, counting the days until Democrats have a chance to regain power.       

                            —Astrid Galván, Associated Press

 

Egolf and Sanchez Hold to this View as if it were Chiseled in a Stone Tablet on Wheeler Peak

This view of the inevitability of the defeat of Republican house members and the continued Democratic majority in the senate has led Egolf and his upper house counterpart, Senator Michael Sanchez (D-Belén) to dismiss all reforms and to mock all suggestions of compromise. 

And in a certain very narrow sense of purely partisan power politics, this makes sense:  If you are certain you are coming back to full power in the next 60-day session, just urge your colleagues not to do anything other than obstruct.

(Mind you, we are not saying this makes sense insofar as the American ideal of representative government—we are not saying this is statesmanship. No. Far from it. We are just saying we understand where they are coming from.  They don't have the same motives as the people of New Mexico at large—that of achieving results.  Instead their motive is to gain and hold power for power's sake.) 

 

Is Egolf Counting on a National (and International) Trend that Will Carry Democrats to Victories Everywhere Across America?

Was Egolf's statement a word of prophecy that will make him a veritable Nostradamus come November 2016?  Or has he really and truly studied the state house and state senate numbers carefully enough to be speaking so authoritatively?

Does Rep. Egolf have advance word that President Obama is about to somehow steady himself, decide to get interested in stopping Iran from going nuclear, and make America an ally of Israel once more?  Does he foresee Obama reversing course in foreign policy, crushing ISIS and defeating Islamic terrorism? 

Do he and Sen. Sanchez have inside word that Obama and Kerry will suddenly become latter-day Eisenhowers or Marshalls—restoring the prestige and trust America has lost over the last six years—and regaining the respect of European nations?  And putting an end to Soviet (oops, we mean Russian) aggression in Eastern Europe?

If they see that, then we can see a reason they also might be envisioning Hillary Clinton riding high and sweeping all of America before her, including taking New Mexico like Grant took Richmond!

 

 

 

Okay, enough of That.  Maybe Representative Egolf and Senator Sanchez Aren't Really Looking to Those Events

So, we'll just stick to New Mexico House and Senate Districts. 

Tune in tomorrow morning for a look at the lay of the land, 2016.

 


 

 

 

 


Update on Right to Work Vote;  Did Rep. Herrell Make a Blunder? We got Feedback (1:45 PM, 26 Feb)

One reader wrote to tell us:

"Yvette is now the only 'GOPer' to have not voted for RTW.  Ironically, listening to Pearce might make her very vulnerable in a primary."

Okay, that's interesting.  We really couldn't completely confirm how much had actually gone on.  But that input now has us believing the congressman did in fact say something to the Alamogordo representative.  But why? 

That would remain a mystery for us.  After all, Right-to-Work is a fairly orthodox Republican position on public policy:  Allowing freedom for the worker.  Not hostile to private sector unions or their freedoms, but merely ensuring that workers have choice and freedom of association.

Does the Reader have a Point?

Well, he may be on to something, but we're not sure.  House District 51, located entirely in Otero County, is overwhelmingly Republican, so there's no real chance of the GOP losing the seat.  The last contested general election was 2010 when Herrell beat City Councilor Susan Medina 3,077 to 1,813 for a 63-37 win. 

And while Herrell ran 360 votes behind Governor Martinez in that race, that certainly does not mean she's not popular in her district.  After all, just five months earlier she had knocked off 16-year GOP incumbent Gloria Vaughn 846-714, in a race largely decided on Vaughn's own record in office.

So did she get bad advice?  Or is it just a minor bump along the way?

With a narrow 37-33 majority, and operating in the majority for the first time since the 1953 session (there was no session in 1954), one could understand if other Republican representatives who have a lot on the line might be annoyed—especially considering this is a serious, conservative-base vote on an issue about which there is little debate and no disagreement. 

We're not saying she left her companions pulling their hair out or frustrated over such an easy vote, though it's possible.  Does anyone feel Herrell was leaving her fellow Rs out on a possible limb?  We have no way of knowing if that is the case at all.  But the reader response indicates they might. 


Right-to-Work. Weird Republican Action? Did Pearce try to Influence House Members? Did the Speaker ask Pearce to Butt Out?

 

Right to Work passed the House last night 37-30.  Democrats voted NO by a margin of 30-1, with Rep. Dona Irwin of Deming voting for the measure.  Representatives Miguel Garcia and Lucky Varela were absent.  Republicans voted 36-0 in favor of the bill, with Rep. Yvette Herrell of Alamogordo skipping the vote.  That was the surprise.

 

Was Congressman Steve Pearce involved in the Herrell Vote?

We don't know, but quite a number of Roundhouse observers say he was.  Herrell has let it be known on various occasions she would like to succeed Pearce in Congress, and the two have worked closely on a number of issues, often with Otero County Republican Chairwoman Rocky Galassini. 

The whole thing seems at least a little odd to NMPJ in that Herrell represents one of the most overwhelmingly Republican districts in the state.  Observers say even the extremely diplomatic, mild-mannered GOP House Speaker politely requested that Congressman Pearce not interfere with the vote or the debate about the measure or the amendment attached to it.

 

Herrell’s District voted on average 71% for GOP Candidates

Even Hector Balderas was swamped by 28 points.   So why there would be hand-wringing on this issue is truly a mystery.  But numerous sources say she "walked" on the bill—meaning there was no acute illness or family emergency.

Bottom Line

Regardless of the intrigue or side stories, the House Republicans did achieve one of their goals last night.  For that we assume they are taking some measure of satisfaction.  We have received numerous comments suggesting that the maneuver to add a minimum wage amendment was, perhaps, not carefully considered.  If it was to attract Democrat votes, none came, except for the moderate Dona Irwin, who had already taken a centrist position on the issue consistent with her district.

 

 

 

 

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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  • Movies, Television, Pop Culture
    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


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