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GOP Turmoil: The Definitive Story of the Republican Party of New Mexico, a 5-Part Series

05/09/2016

Background:

Over the past 104 years since statehood, the Republican Party of New Mexico has been in a relatively disadvantageous position. This may be an understatement.

There have been 40 statewide elections since the first one in November 1911.* Here is the GOP’s record in statewide races:

Office Sought Wins Losses
Secretary of State   5   35
State Auditor   7    33
State Treasurer   9   31
Attorney General   5   35
Commissioner of Public Lands  12   28
TOTALS  38 162

That’s bad enough, but when you consider that the Republicans were 22-16 between 1911 and 1928, it’s even worse. Since 1930, the GOP is 16-146. That's s success rate of less than 10%!

This is without even discussing their even worse record in the numerous races for the old Corporation Commission, Superintendent of Public Schools (yeah, they used to elect those) Court of Appeals, and Supreme Court.

True, in races for governor, Republicans have won 15 and lost 25, a relatively lusty 38% winning percentage. But the GOP’s overall record is not a strong one.

The State House of Representatives has been controlled by Democrats for 95 years, and 19 years by the Republicans. The GOP has had two more years' control of the State Senate (21 to 93) owing to some successful election years in the 1920s. Overall, the Republicans have controlled the Legislature as a whole for only 12 years in 104 years of statehood, and never — not for even one single day — since 1930.


* The first election was held two months before statehood in November 1911.


In the past Generation

There was a resurgence of competitiveness in the 1980s, and certainly people like Congressman Manuel Lujan and Senator Pete Domenici won ten and five consecutive terms respectively, and Congressman Joe Skeen won eleven.

But by and large Democrats, despite occasional GOP gubernatorial successes, have continuously won roughly an average of 54-55% of the statewide vote, sometimes dropping to the 52-53% range, but winning the overwhelming majority of state and local races and maintaining a stranglehold on the state legislature. Until 2014.

Redistricting 2012

Every ten years the legislature has to be redistricted. Following the 2010 Census, the Democrat-controlled legislature led by State Representative Ken Martinez (D-Grants) and State Senators Tim Jennings (D-Roswell) and Michael Sanchez (D-Belen) passed grossly partisan plans for both bodies. 

In the House, Martinez’s plan would have given the Democrats a permanent 46-24 advantage in the 70-member chamber from 2012 until at least 2022 when the next redistricting plan would go into effect. 

The GOP balked. Governor Martinez vetoed the plans and both cases ended up in court. After a series of court rulings and appeals, a plan emerged that left 30 seats in solid Democrat Party hands (impossible to defeat under any circumstances) and 24 seats in control of the Republicans.

That left 16 seats that were theoretically winnable by either party. All 16 districts have been carried by both President Obama one year, as well as by Governor Martinez in other years.  The final approved plan still favored the Democrats, but their advantage was more like 38-32 instead of 46-24. 

And in 2012 that’s the way it played out—the Democrats carried 8 of the 16 most competitive seats, and they retained a 38-32 majority in the legislature, which the New Mexico press hailed as a tremendous victory.

In the Senate, Jennings and Sanchez tried the same shenanigans, passing a plan that would have given the Democrats a permanent 28-14 majority.

Again Governor Martinez vetoed the plan, and though more compliant than the House Republicans, the Senate GOP leadership at least acquiesced in a court challenge. The plan that emerged from the court settlement provided the Democrats a solid 20-14 edge, with 8 seats at least theoretically in play, though those eight were significantly less competitive for the Republicans than the aforementioned 16 in the house.

 

2014:  Republicans Outhustle the Democrats

In 2014, things changed. The Democrats got out-recruited, outworked and outhustled. Led by soon-to-be House Speaker Don Tripp, and the incoming Majority Leader Nate Gentry, the GOP legislators raised money, recruited candidates, trained them, and then raised more money (though not as much as the Democrats, it should be noted).

When the dust settled, the Republicans had pretty much run the table, taking 13 of 16 competitive seats, with only Stephanie Garcia Richard (D-Los Alamos), George Dodge (D-Santa Rosa), and Dona Irwin (D-Deming) surviving.

This was very much a joint victory, strategized by the legislative leadership with heavy support, both financially and through in-person campaigning, from the governor. The state party, despite inheriting an enormous balance of funds from the prior administration, was unable to raise much money or help candidates much at all, and ended up the cycle in debt.

 

2016

This year the battle has truly been joined, with both parties fully aware of the House battleground districts, 11 of which have changed hands at least once since 2010, and 6 of which have see-sawed at least twice over the past six years. 

They are also focused on the senate districts which give the Republicans an outside chance of reaching a 21-21 tie, and thus controlling the body with the Lieutenant Governor’s vote.

Ironically, some of the Senate Democrats with favorable districts have, through a combination of ineptitude and talking down to their constituents, played their districts into competitiveness that otherwise would not have existed.

Uncertainty.  Both parties have no idea how their presidential nominees will play out.  The apparent Democratic nominee is an embarrassment who faces a potential indictment, and is universally regarded as dishonest.  The likely Republican nominee is a populist who entered the race on a lark, and is obviously woefully unprepared for a general election campaign. He is also embarrassing and has taken language and behavior to an entirely new universe.

It is a supreme irony of the 2016 election cycle, that for the first time in American history, both major parties appear to be on the verge of nominating a presidential candidate who is so weak that the ONLY person he or she could beat is the nominee of the other party.

We are a nation of 319,000,000 people, some 130,000,000 of whom are both over 35 and US citizens. So the odds that one party would pick their weakest possible candidate are quite long— and the odds that both would do so is almost unfathomable. But that is what they have done. (We still believe Clinton will not be the nominee of the Democrats, but we are in the "one percent" on that count.)

 

Enter the Republican Party of New Mexico

Some say with success there inevitably comes jealousy, envy and infighting. We don't know if that has to be true, but it appears to be true in among New Mexico Republicans. It is definitely a party with divisions and factions. Now a fight is brewing. What is it about? Whence cometh?

Tomorrow, NMPJ examines:

  • The roots of the divisions and the factions, its characters and their track records.
  • The basic kinds of Republicans in New Mexico: In terms of Philosophy
  • The basics kinds of Republicans: In terms of Goal-orientation
  • The Balkanized Party: the Divisions and their origins
  • The Race for National Committeeman:  Yates v. Rogers

 


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.

Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

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National Issues

National Issues

Democrats

2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

Republicans

2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

Media Watch

Media Watch

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County Government News

Cities, Towns and Villages

Cities, Towns and Villages

Judicial Watch

Judicial Watch

Movies, Television, Pop Culture

Movies, Television, Pop Culture

  • Movies, Television, Pop Culture
    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

Religious Issues

  • Religious Issues
    Coming Soon

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