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New Mexico GOP. Part 2. The Definitive Story of the Republican Party of New Mexico. Pearce v. Martinez: A Grudge born in 2008.

05/10/2016
Pearce v. Martinez: A Grudge Born in 2008

The 2008 Campaign

In 2008, Senator Pete Domenici decided not to run for a seventh term. Congressman Steve Pearce decided to give up his seat in southern New Mexico and run for the US Senate. It was a bad decision. Of course many might say that that observation has the benefit of hindsight. But there were already many signs that it was shaping up to be a bad year for Republicans.

The housing market was in steady decline. President Bush had been upside down since July 2005, and was never again to have positive approval ratings (at least while president). The week of candidate filing, 33% of Americans approved of the job President Bush was doing, 61% disapproved. (Just by way of contrast President Obama has never fallen to that level in the polls.)

A not very popular (among Republicans) probable nominee (John McCain) started to emerge in mid-winter. And Democrats began to get excited over the fact that they might be able to nominate a black candidate — which was truly amazing for a political party that had opposed civil rights from their beginning in 1828 until their Damascene conversion in 1964.

Obamamania

Until Obama, Democrats were, according to Delaware Senator Joe Biden, generally speaking, thoroughly embarrassed by their black members and candidates. But with the emergence of the young Illinois senator, Biden expressed his sheer amazement, and what most Democrats were beginning to openly discuss:

"I mean, you got the first mainstream African-American who is articulate and bright and clean and a nice-looking guy," Biden said. "I mean, that's a storybook, man.

(It's important to note that no Republican had ever said anything even remotely similar about any black Republican candidate. Before or since.)

Democrats obviously thought that folks like Al Sharpton, Jesse Jackson, et al., were somewhat less than "clean and nice-looking," and clearly didn't think they were very "articulate and bright" either.

The bottom line that we all know now is that Democrats got more excited than practically ever before in history. Meanwhile, Republicans didn't even like their nominee. There was brief excitement over the vice-presidential choice, but when the housing market completely imploded, out that went.

(Yes, we are aware that the housing bubble and ultimate catastrophe was caused by two incompetent ne'er-do-well Democrats, Senator Christopher Dodd and Congressman Barney Frank. But they weren't held accountable at that time, and on election day President Bush stood at 25 - 70 in approval/disapproval.)

The New Mexico Senate Race

It was a bad year for the GOP in the US Senate. They lost 8 seats, including 5 incumbents. They didn't beat an incumbent Democrat anywhere, nor did they take a single open seat from the Democrats. 

In New Mexico, with Obama carrying the state by 15 points, no Republican, not even Abraham Lincoln, could have won the US Senate race. Pearce trailed the Democrat nominee Tom Udall by 26 points in July. Similar polls showed similar situations all across the country. 

The chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, Senator John Ensign of Nevada was trying to defend 23 seats. In a June interview with the Wall Street Journal he identified the 10 most vulnerable seats he was trying to save. When aked about the two most vulnerable of the ten, Virginia and New Mexico, he said:

"You don’t waste money on races that don’t need it or you can’t win."

That's pretty brutal, but that's also the way things go. In both parties.  It was kind of like triage. Ensign was trying to save incumbents in Maine, Alaska, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oregon, and New Hampshire — all of which were doing vastly better than the GOP candidates in New Mexico and Virginia. In the end, the year was so bad he lost them all, except Maine.

Still, despite everything, Steve Pearce raised and spent $4.8 million, compared to Udall's $7.8 million. That was a disadvantage, but it wasn't decisive. The year, and the political lay of the land — as are usually the case — were decisive. Pearce had enough to get his message out, and to be competitive on TV. It's just that in 2008, voters in swing states weren't buying what Republicans were selling. Pure and simple.

The Search for Blame

No analysis we have read anywhere, in any source, shows that Steve Pearce, or his primary opponent Heather Wilson, or former Governor Gary Johnson, or anyone else, could have won in New Mexico in 2008. But Pearce had, for whatever reason, hired an old buddy, John Billingsley, to run his campaign. (We know of no successful local, legislative, congressional or statewide campaigns that Billingsley has ever run, but this was Pearce's decision.)

The rational thing, which sometimes politicians have difficulty turning to, is to accept the year, the demography, the issues, the conditions, the mood of the electorate, and get on with life.

But together, Billingsley and Pearce decided they would blame the then Regional Political Director for the Republican National Committee, a 33-year-old RNC staff member named Jay McCleskey.

McCleskey vigorously defended his work in the western region and, seemingly factually, pointed out the considerable fundraising that was steered Pearce's way ($4.8 million compared to $7.8 million is not that bad for a campaign trailing 61-35 on July 24. (Rasmussen Reports).

But Pearce and Billingsley, for whatever reason — and it's our observation of human nature that it occurs too often — had to have a scapegoat. There is no way they just got beat. McCleskey became that scapegoat, and the grudge became deeply embedded.

 

Enter Susana Martinez

As far as we know, at that time McCleskey was not acquainted with Susana Martinez. However, fast forward two years, and along the way McCleskey had gone into business for himself and was taking on clients, the main one of which was Doña Ana County District Attorney Martinez, in her campaign for governor.

For the past eight years, actually six we guess, beginning in 2010, McCleskey's clients have by extension become "enemies" of Billingsley and Pearce. It isn't rational, but it is what it is. As time goes by the situation becomes worse with each passing election cycle. 

But, as best we can tell, there is nothing anyone can do about it.  McCleskey, and now Martinez, it seems (though we are not close enough to the situation to know) try to stay as far away from the "grudge meisters" as they can. But Billingsley and Pearce just won't let go.

Much of what takes place from time to time in what the media perceive as "intra-party squabbling" in the RPNM is actually a proxy war launched by the Pearce-Billingsley team, believing they can some how "damage" the governor, or McCleskey or both. 

The point of it all? We don't know. But there it is.


Tomorrow, NMPJ examines:

  • The Proxy War of 2016
  • The roots of the divisions and the factions, their characters and their track records.
  • The basic kinds of Republicans in New Mexico: In terms of Philosophy
  • The basics kinds of Republicans: In terms of Goal-orientation
  • The Balkanized Party: the Divisions and their origins
  • The Race for National Committeeman:  Yates v. Rogers

 


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

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