The Mark Ronchetti campaign released a poll yesterday that showed the Albuquerque meteorologist opening up a huge lead over his remaining Republican opponents in the GOP primary race for US Senate. The winner of the primary will face Democrat Congressman Ben Ray Lujan in the open seat general election to replace retiring Senator Tom Udall.

According to Public Opinion Strategies, 45% of Republican primary voters either definitely support or probably support Ronchetti, while both Gavin Clarkson and Elisa Martinez each enjoy probable or definite support from only 11% of those same voters. 

Voters were asked:

"If the Republican primary election for US Senate were being held today, for whom would you vote between Elisa Martinez, Gavin Clarkson, and Mark Ronchetti?" (Or "between Mark Ronchetti, Elisa Martinez, and Gavin Clarkson," and other randomized combinations that changed the order of the candidates' names throughout the poll.)

400 Republican voters who were identified as "primary voters," were surveyed by telephone between the 18th and 22nd of March. 

In terms of name identification, Ronchetti also enjoyed a significant advantage, with 75% of Republican voters having heard of him, while Clarkson was known by only 41% of those surveyed and 37% were familiar with Martinez.

Significantly, core sub-groups also supported Ronchetti. Voters who identified themselves as "very conservative" gave Ronchetti 46% of the vote. Perhaps even more surprising, Ronchetti had 44% of the support of voters who consider themselves to be "strong pro-life."

The latter finding has to sound alarms with the Martinez campaign, as she has touted herself as the pro-life champion, given her role as the former Executive Director of New Mexicans for Life. 

It's Early, But this is the First Test

Of course, it's still a very long time (especially in politics) till the June 2nd primary, exactly 60 days away, and a lot could happen, especially in this strange, unprecedented atmosphere. But this early sample has to be sobering for Clarkson and Martinez as it is encouraging to the Ronchetti backers. Ronchetti could get a huge fundraising lift out of this poll, just as his opponents could see contributions dry up.

Ronchetti's favorable to unfavorable rating is an almost unheard of 56 to 3, while Clarkson's is 16 to 4 and Martinez's is 13 to 4.

One of the things that has to be concluded from this is that the constant, daily extremely negative social media attacks on Ronchetti by Martinez supporters, John Block, Eddy Aragon, and several others have simply had little effect. 

We have believed that those kinds of tactics often end up creating what might be called "a tempest in a teapot" rather than having a significant impact among the state's 370,000 Republicans or the 120,000 GOP voters who might show up in a primary. This poll appears to support our conclusions.

While we have remained scrupulously neutral in this race, as in other statewide races, we nonetheless can see where many Republican voters may see a rise in morale and a hope that their party might be able to unite behind a strong candidate for the fall showdown with Lujan.

Still, there is time for either Clarkson and Martinez to stage a serious comeback and surge to victory, in which case we are sure that Republicans would also unite behind either of them should they become the nominee. 

Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.

Representative Patricio Ruiloba Disqualified, House District 12 (South Valley, SW of the Big I)

In 2014, following the retirement of the late Ernest H. Chavez, the current incumbent Democrat Representative, Patricio Ruiloba, won a three-way Democrat primary with 42% of the vote by defeating Mark D. Armijo 438 to 405, with Lorenzo J. Pino getting 197 votes. Republicans did not file anyone.

As shown in the map at left (HD 12, shaded orange), the district is located west of the Rio Grande between Gun Club Rd on the south and Rosendo Garcia on the north. It is a "low-vote" district, with a higher than average "under 18" population, and fewer eligible adult voters than average. So vote totals are much lower than the average House district.

81% of the voting-age population is Hispanic.

These combinations of factors usually mean the Republicans are not competitive.

In 2016, the district voted for Clinton 4,468 to 2,013 for Trump, and 638 for Gary Johnson. Republicans last contested the district in 2012, when Chavez defeated Clyde Wheeler, 4,736 to 1,856.

Ruiloba Problems

Representative Ruiloba apparently secured a sufficient number of signatures, but failed to indicate the district number of his state representative district, writing only the words "State Representative" into the last blank (as shown on the form) instead of "State Representative, District 12."

To be fair, the Supreme Court is on record encouraging the legislature to provide an additional blank space for a district, but the legislature has ignored that direction. 

Confusion Built-in to the System

On section of the Election Code requires the following information on a nomination petition: 1) the candidate’s name as shown on the certificate of registration; 2) the candidate’s address; 3) the office sought; 4) the district or division number; 5) the party affiliation of the candidate; and 6) the party affiliation of the voters signing the petition.

However, over the past nine years, the legislature has failed to update the nominating petition form as shown in statute. Therefore that section of the Election Code requires some very different information: 1) the party affiliation of the voters; 2) the candidate’s name; 3) the candidate’s address; 4) the candidate’s county; 5) the office sought; and 6) the date of the primary election.

To make matters worse, while the Secretary of State tells candidates that the district number is required, the statute and the SOS guidance also say that the candidate’s party affiliation is required. However, there is no blank on the petition form for the candidate’s party affiliation, just as there is no identifiable appropriate blank provided for the district number. 

In short, regarding nominating petitions, the entire process, including the Election Code, the SOS guidance, and the numerous conflicting passages between various sections of the Code represent an enormous jumble of conflicting and contradicting information that is actually impossible to comply with. It will remain that way until such time as the legislature finally agrees to take seriously the Supreme Court's admonition to "fix it.

Ruiloba however, did not make any of these points in court, so, while he says he will appeal the district court's decision, he appears unlikely to prevail.

Rumors that Democrats Want Ruiloba Out? Not True, says the Speaker of the House

We have heard from many readers, Democrats and Republicans alike, that the Democratic Party and Speaker of the House Brian Egolf "don't care if Ruiloba is thrown off the ballot." In fact, say these readers "the word is out that Egolf and the Democrats are happy to see him go," that "he votes wrong on some issues and isn't in the mainstream of the party," that he "has an A rating from the National Rifle Association" and other damning traits.

Not so.  Speaker Egolf denies these rumors in no uncertain terms. "I absolutely have done everything I can to assist Representative Ruiloba," the speaker said. "I worked with other elected officials to ensure that he was able to find competent counsel." (Counsel ended up being Tatiana D. Engelmann of Albuquerque.) "Representative Ruiloba is a very collegial member of our caucus who works very well with everyone, I absolutely want him back, and will do what I can to see that that happens."

When asked about statements other Democrats had made that Ruiloba has a "bad" rating with the NRA or is part of a faction that opposes Egolf, the Speaker denied even knowing about such a dynamic. "That's the first I've heard of any of that," he said. "I value Pat, I've made him a committee chair, and regard him as a key member of the legislature."

The Speaker did, however, acknowledge that Ruiloba's problems with his petitions were "of his own making." "We offered everyone a chance to have their signature and petitions reviewed, and even reached out to him on three occasions to afford him that opportunity. He decided that." The Speaker hopes Ruiloba prevails on appeal, but is not "optimistic" about that.

So if Ruiloba does NOT Prevail on Appeal: What Happens Now to the Residents of House District 12?

Well, Ruiloba is out—individuals who have filed a declaration of candidacy cannot file another one during the same election year. So he cannot come back as a "write-in," or as an "independent," or under some other party banner. The other major parties—the Republicans and the Libertarians—did not file anyone. So they're out too.

What is left for the people of House District 12 are four options:  

1) On June 25, an independent (or multiple independent candidates) could file 300 valid signatures and provide voters with that choice for the general election ballot.

2) On June 25, a member or members of New Mexico's three minor parties—the Green Party, the Constitution Party, and the Better for America Party—could file 150 signatures and present one or more candidates from those parties as an option on the general election ballot.

3) On June 25, a resident or residents of the district (all potential candidates have to be residents of the district) could file as a write-in candidate. Such a candidate has the disadvantage of not having his or her name appear on the ballot, but it is an option.

4) No one files on June 25, Ruiloba serves out his term, and the office becomes vacant on January 1, 2021. At that point, the Bernalillo County Commission would be empowered to name a new state representative. 

Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.

We have received reports this evening that New Mexico State Police—apparently tipped off by passers-by (or by competitors)—have cited the owners and management of Honda-Subaru of Santa Fe for “having too many people on site.”

NMSP apparently entered the property, located at 7511 Cerrillos Road, without warning.

Delegates of the Republican Party of New Mexico (RPNM) gathered at the Hotel Albuquerque on Friday evening, 6 March, for their State Pre-Primary Nominating Convention which was held Saturday morning, March 7th. The convention is for candidates who seek statewide or congressional offices.

Only those candidates who have gathered signatures equal to 2% of their party's total votes cast in its previous gubernatorial primary may compete in the pre-primary convention. The New Mexico pre-primary convention law then requires those candidates for statewide offices and congressional seats to receive 20% of the delegate vote to be "certified" as convention-designated nominees for the primary. 

The first thing we have to say is that the convention was very well run, efficient, on-time, with no glitches of any kind that we took note of. 

Steve Pearce started the whole thing off, which as state chairman was certainly appropriate. He hawked his autobiography, which was on prominent display, though we never saw anyone buy one.

It's available in thrift stores in southeastern New Mexico for 25 to 50 cents, though to be fair, many many books are sold at that price, not just Pearce's. But Pearce did give a good, solid, rousing speech, which was fairly well-received, though certain sectors did not respond as we thought the theme merited. 

Candidate Speeches and Results

Congressional District 1

Michelle Garcia Holmes led off, making an okay speech with frequent referrals to notes, indicating some unfamiliarity with her message. She was well-received as the bulk of Albuquerque delegates present in their home town venue were in support of her candidacy.

Brett Kokinadis delivered an okay speech as well, though he also had to constantly refer to notes and was not as well-prepared as others. His themes were generally not in sync with the views of the overall convention crowd. This was probably predictable, given that he's only been a Republican for five months and his views still by and large reflect his life-long Democrat leanings.

It's one thing to change parties—that happens all the time. But in most cases, the change is made because a person realizes that his or her current party does not match his or her actual worldview or political philosophy. It is not clear if this is the case with Kokinadis, or if he instead intends to lead the GOP to embrace new policy positions it doesn't currently hold.

Attendees also told us he was hurt by an abrupt switch from the CD3 primary to CD1 that they claimed had the appearance of opportunism rather than sincerity.     

Jared Vander Dussen finished the three-candidate set by giving a well-prepared speech with no notes and he never looked down or anyplace else other than to his audience. He was one of two candidates to accomplish this (Yvette Herrell was the other). He made a generally very good impression.

RESULT:  Holmes 135 (63.4%) Vander Dussen 64 (30.3%) Kokinadis 14 (6.6%). Holmes won an impressive victory, with Vander Dussen coming through with a very respectable showing, and Kokinadis receiving very little support. By all accounts, it went about as expected, though some were surprised that Kokinadis did very very poorly, believing he had a real chance to reach 20%. 

Congressional District 2

Claire Chase was introduced by her husband, and then gave a pretty good speech, with a certain degree of energy and was well received. It must be noted, however, that at the 3-minute 50-second mark, Chase's microphone was cut off. She is the only candidate who received this treatment, though others did go past the 3½-minute time limit.

When that happened, Chase maintained her poise and reacted with grace, something the audience seemed to appreciate.

Yvette Herrell was introduced by Couy Griffin, who has built up a business enterprise called Cowboys for Trump* and has a certain following in the state.  Griffin gave a rousing, well-received speech, as did Herrell. In fact, it could be said that Herrell actually knocked it out of the park.

She had clearly spent a lot of time rehearsing the speech—which is something every convention candidate should do, but few actually accomplish. It paid off, and she was probably the best-received candidate on that date.

However, it must be noted that Herrell went all the way to 3 minutes 54 seconds (four seconds longer than Chase) and her mike was not cut. (So there was non-uniform treatment of candidates in that respect.)

Chris Mathys showed up with a hat—something we believe is usually not a good look (with the possible exception of a Land Commissioner or County Sheriff candidate). It wasn't a cowboy hat, but some sort of odd, exotic style. He gave a reasonable speech, but not anything that would move the crowd.

RESULT:  Herrell 168 (66.1%) Chase 83 (32.7%) Mathys 3 (1.2%). While Herrell's victory was reasonably impressive, it was also very much expected, as Steve Pearce had led a contingent of about a hundred people in Lea County that took over their county convention and had secured at least 90% of the delegates there.

[NOTE: Though he has escaped notice thus far (probably because disadvantaged candidates do not wish to file a formal complaint against their own state chairman) Pearce has left himself open to being cited for violations of §1-19-1 of the New Mexico Election Code.]

Pearce has engaged in similar operations, in several contested primaries, but perhaps most noticeably in the CD2 race. His involvement—and the active, ongoing involvement of the RPNM on behalf of Herrell—has been so extensive that most observers were thinking that the effort to keep Chase from reaching the 20% threshold might be successful.

Given that context, Chase's showing exceeded most people's expectations and her campaign was clearly happy to emerge with convention designation. Mathys' showing was about as expected, though perhaps a higher single figure of total votes was expected.

Congressional District 3

Audra Lee Brown appeared in a cowboy hat and delivered a reasonable speech. She got some laughs from the crowd and developed a good rapport. We later learned from a close observer that the rationale for the hat was not the cowboy motif so favored by Gavin Clarkson et.al, but rather to obscure a rainbow-colored coif that might otherwise be viewed as off-putting. In any case, Brown's speech was pretty well delivered. 

Karen Evette Bedonie, who is Navajo, brought a considerable entourage to the stage and made an appeal that was somewhat heavy on identity politics.

This is a somewhat risky tactic in conservative settings where the voters believe politics is about ideas and a candidate's stands on issues rather than overt appeals to demographic subgroups of the population. Bedonie did pretty well and seemed to make a connection with the crowd.

Anise Golden-Morper, newly back on the ballot and fresh off an easy victory over a poor ruling by the Secretary of State (who seems continuously power-hungry and overreaching) brought something of a defiant mood to the stage.

Because she is only 4' 6", the lectern had to be moved back and off to her right so she could be in full view of the convention audience. She displayed a lot of energy, but—perhaps understandably—devoted too much time to her court victory and not quite enough to the great national issues to which a congressional candidate should be attuned. Still, she made a solid impression overall.

Alexis M. Johnson made what sounded like the best-outlined and maybe the best-scripted speech of the day (with the possible exception of Herrell's). Unfortunately, in the hubbub surrounding Golden-Morper's visibility, when the lectern was moved back into place, the microphone was left dangling to the right and down and away from the speaker. Either that or her nominating speaker left it in an awkward position.

In any case, Johnson did not make an effort to ensure that she and her microphone were in sync. As a result, the volume of her voice ranged between very low to a light, mid-range level.

As she came in and out, it definitely appeared she was giving the right inflection and proper emphasis to have a desired effect, but much of that effect, if not most of it was missed, and therefore lost on the audience. The people right in front of her did react more strongly than most of the nearly 700 who had gathered in the room. It was an unfortunate turn of events for her.

Harry B. Montoya was introduced by former Congressman Bill Redmond, an experienced hand whose first move on the podium was to take control of the microphone with his hand and adjust it, and even holding it while he spoke.

We usually don't believe introductory speeches are the way to go (they take time away from the candidate, who, after all, is the subject on trial) but Redmond's recognition of the mike problem did a great deal for Montoya.

Montoya was also accompanied by an enormous entourage, one that included quite a few natives of northern pueblos. They appeared to be making it clear that Bedonie, whatever identity she may invoke, does not have a lock on the Native American vote. (It may be lost on some, but there exists a certain degree of, shall we say "disconnect" between Pueblos and the Diné—which reflects long-standing, somewhat uneasy relationships.)

Montoya made a good speech on his own and connected.

RESULT:  Montoya 86 (35.6%) Bedonie 69 (30.9%) Golden-Morper 39 (17.5%) Johnson 25 (11.2%) Brown 4 (1.8%). Montoya's victory may have caught some off-guard, as he has been attacked pretty strongly for being another recent convert.

He left the Democrat Party only 11 months ago, after more than 35 years a Democrat and having served two terms as a Democrat Santa Fe County Commissioner.

His opponents claim he switched only because the state Democratic Party told him he had no place to run as a pro-life candidate and was unwelcome as a potential congressional candidate. This did not seem to hurt him among convention-goers, though it may as the primary campaign continues.

Bedonie's operation is very well organized, and, according to most observers, is far and away the nastiest—and said to be in league with US Senate candidate Elisa Martinez, whose surrogates and spokespersons are also running an extremely nasty and overwhelmingly negative campaign, especially in social media.

Both of those candidates, who seem to be running as a team, may eventually face a backlash from primary voters disgusted with their social media operations. 

Whether it has come about via negativity or some sort of true grassroots support, Bedonie clearly has a formidable organization. Golden-Morper was clearly upset with her showing and dropped out of the race within a few days. Audra Brown did the same, having garnered only 4 votes.

For her part, Alexis Johnson vowed to continue the campaign. As the candidate who probably comes off more eloquently conservative Republican than any of the remaining three in the race, Johnson may yet have a shot at catching hold. 

U.S. Senate

Gavin Clarkson led off the senate speeches attired in his semi-cowboy motif and did his usual good job of expounding on conservative Republican themes. He appeared to connect with the audience, most of whom have undoubtedly seen him around the state, as this is the third office he has sought over just the past 21 months.

Elisa Martinez followed with a well-delivered speech, which connected with a built-in very receptive audience. As the former executive director of New Mexico Alliance for Life, she had an organizational advantage that allowed her to elect about a hundred members of that pro-life organization as delegates, leading to a real boost in enthusiasm for every part of her speech.

Martinez is Navajo, but emphasizes that she is also Hispanic, and she, much like Bedonie, made a very real identity-politics pitch. Again, this is a risky approach in a universe of voters who view identity politics with skepticism if not outright intellectual disdain.

Though to be fair, Martinez probably touched on more issues that resonate with conservative audiences than did Bedonie. Needless to say, she did well with the convention crowd.

Mick Rich, who is clearly one of the nicest people to ever run for office anywhere, simply did not come across as someone who had his full heart and soul in this race. He read most of his speech, which is almost inexplicable for someone who is running for the same office for three years. 

Mark Ronchetti came through with a burst of enthusiasm that seemed to hit home with at least a portion of the convention crowd. He seemed to elicit a more increasing welcoming and friendly response as his speech went on.

Ronchetti has been the principal, if not the only target of the relentlessly vicious attacks by the Elisa Martinez social media operation. So it was not a surprise that it appeared that a large segment of the attendees had come in with a skeptical, if not negative, appraisal of his candidacy.

However, Ronchetti's enthusiasm and well-delivered, well-crafted speech seemed to win over a significant portion of that skeptical element.

Louie Sanchez made a good speech, highlighting his entrepreneurial talents and business success. He found a receptive audience as it appeared he had a lot of committed delegates who were big fans, a phenomenon we had noticed in various locations around the state. This was impressive in that we had never heard of him till his announcement earlier this year. 

RESULT:  Martinez  241 (34.9%) Ronchetti 198 (28.7%) Sanchez 113 (16.4%) Rich 72 (10.4%) Clarkson 66 (9.6%). Martinez's win was widely expected as she had a built-in base of about a hundred votes due to her very early start nearly six months ago and the hard work planning for the convention and rounding up the Alliance for Life members.

The surprise for almost everyone, including us, had to be Ronchetti. He had only recently entered the race and had done relatively little for this meeting, knowing that no matter what happened he had over 10,000 signatures and therefore did not have to worry about reaching the 20% threshold.

As a result he apparently spent nothing for the convention: no hospitality suite, no ads, no visible effort at all. Yet he surged very strongly, probably based on how he came across. It can even be argued that if only the persuadable delegates are considered, Ronchetti actually beat Martinez something like 190 to 140, pretty impressive.

Rich seemed somewhat despondent at the surprising result, and dropped out of the race. Clarkson's showing has to be considered unimpressive given his continuous campaign for three offices that has now lasted some 2½ years. However, he vowed to soldier on.

Another real surprise was Sanchez's inability to reach the 20% threshold, considering his extremely loyal base of support that had quickly emerged and his clear standing and reputation in the business community. Surprisingly, he dropped out as well. We are told that his lucrative business interests are more or less a "hands-on" requirement for him and that he concluded that he cannot really conduct the kind of campaign he needs to do while simultaneously giving the personal attention his enterprises require.

* The organization does, however, face serious questions involving its role in advocating the election of selected candidates, and whether or not it is filing proper campaign finance reports.)

Can any Democrat out there tell us what Nancy Pelosi’s amendment, that provides:

“tax credits for solar panels,”

We already looked at the circular firing squad situation in State Senate District 19, brought about by the state's Republican leadership. RPNM and House Leadership continue to deny unlawful activities, however, it appears all of the information that our sources say came from inside discussions we have reported on has turned out to be true. The bottom line is that because of poor leadership New Mexico Republicans are going to be wasting many thousands of dollars on primaries—funds and resources that could be used on challenges to Democrats.

GOP LEGISLATIVE PRIMARIES

Senate District 41

Incumbent Republican Senator Gregg H. Fulfer of Jal is being challenged by incumbent Representative David M. Gallegos of Eunice. Fulfer was appointed to the position in December 2018, following the resignation of Senator Carroll Leavell. Following New Mexico law on vacancies in the legislature, both Fulfer and Gallegos submitted their names to the Eddy and Lea County Commissions.

The Eddy County Commission selected Fulfer by a vote of 3-2 and the Lea County board did the same by a 4-1 vote. Accordingly, Fulfer's name was the only one forwarded to Governor Susana Martinez, who appointed Fulfer.

Since they have both been interviewed extensively and have published full-page ads explaining their motivation for running, we did not need to interview either candidate. 

Representative Gallegos explained his rationale in the Hobbs News-Sun on March 1st by attacking both of the county commissions that he wants to represent. Saying that he is someone who has "always stood on principle," Gallegos appeared to repeatedly attack both the Eddy and Lea County commissioners as lacking the principles he possesses. He had this to say:

"When Senator Fulfer was chosen for this office by just 7 people who were all on Lea and Eddy county commissions, the voice of the people at that time was ignored. Some would go so far to say the decision was made in private before the public vote."

Gallegos neglected to tell the voters that the procedures followed by the commissions are exactly those that are prescribed in New Mexico law. Instead, he implies they had somehow broken the law and just dreamed up the process, making up rules as they went along. He also accuses the commissions of having violated the Governmental Conduct Act by holding secret, unlawful meetings—an odd approach to take with the governments of the counties he wants to represent.

In any case, Gallegos has made it very clear that his self-proclaimed, single, overriding reason for running is that he feels he should have been chosen 15 months ago instead of Fulfer. It seems a thin reed on which to base a campaign, especially with the Republican Party having so many Democrat targets available. 

Senator Fulfer had a strong response ad to Gallegos, laying out his support for traditional family values and the Southeastern New Mexico way of life. Minority Leader Stuart Ingle weighed in to buttress Fulfer's case by saying:  

“Senator Fulfer is the foremost expert in the entire State Senate on oil and gas issues. We look to him for the kind of in-depth knowledge of this industry which is so vital not only to Southeastern New Mexico, but to our entire state. I don’t know where we would be without Gregg’s expertise on these kinds of issues. We need him to stay in the Senate.”

On balance, it appears that Fulfer makes the stronger case for the seat, as Gallegos appears motivated by spite, while Fulfer is motivated by the ways in which he can represent the district. Making the case worse for Gallegos is the fact he's an incumbent challenging an incumbent of the same Republican Party. Meanwhile, Republicans will have fewer resources with which to take on Democrat incumbents.

Senate District 33

Incumbent Republican William F. Burt of Alamogordo is being challenged by newcomer Christopher Glendon Hensley of Roswell.

Hensley is a landman with his own company. He is from Chickasha, Oklahoma and he says he's been in Roswell about two years. He graduated from Putnam City High School in Oklahoma and he has a B.S. from Oklahoma City University. He is 39, married and has four children. 

Burt grew up in Deming and graduated from high school there. He has a B.S. in Mass Communications from New Mexico State, and he and his wife own four radio stations in Alamogordo. He is 69, married, with two children and five grandchildren.

We interviewed Mr. Hensley by telephone, asking his motivation, considering the fact that, in terms of Republicans capturing the Senate, the outcome of this race is irrelevant. 

Here are excerpts from that interview: 

Hensley: "I don't have a negative thing to say about Mr. Burt. I just feel we need new blood, and certain people have asked me to do this." 

NMPJ: Are they willing to go public with that?

Hensley: "No."

NMPJ: Are you familiar with the notion that when anyone takes on an incumbent that person is saying the incumbent should be fired? You're essentially saying Mr. Burt should be fired.

Hensley: "I get that. And again, I don't have anything to say about Mr. Burt, but the state is in poor position. We are just about last in every category, except crime. If you've had a job for close to ten years, it can be time for change. 

NMPJ: Well, Republicans might argue "Hey, we aren't the ones in charge. We aren't the ones who have put the state in this position. Why run against us? Why not against the Democrats?

Hensley: "Some people say that. But here's the thing: new blood can find different ways to work together to change things. 70-80% of the issues are non-partisan—education, healthcare, we have only 2 million people and we're last in everything."

Hensley was cordial throughout. 

We also interviewed Senator Burt by phone, asking his view of the impending contest. Here is his take:

NMPJ: Do you know Mr. Hensley or why he is running?

Burt: We have met and talked. He's a nice guy. I don't know, no one seems to know him. But yes, I do have an idea of who is behind his running.

NMPJ: Can you say who that is?

Burt:  No, I'd rather not right now. Let's wait and see how things go. There might be an appropriate moment to talk about that at some point, but not right now.

NMPJ: What do you think of his statement that New Mexico is last in everything?

Burt: "There are lots of reasons why we are last or near last in some categories. Everyone wants to improve. It's what path we take that matters. Most issues are certainly not non-partisan. Republicans and Democrats have different approaches to just about everything."

NMPJ: So you've had a cordial meeting?

Burt: "We have. I certainly don't want anything negative. Win, lose, or draw, I don't want to lose a good Republican. I encouraged him to get to know people, let people get to know him, for him to get to know the state, the politics of the state, and the system."

Senator Burt was cordial and forthright. 

RATINGS

We again consulted the American Conservative Union (ACU)* to see what their 2019 rankings of New Mexico legislators might reveal. It turns out that Senator Burt has a rating of 53%, which ties him for 10th place out of 16 in his caucus, with Senator Candace Gould.

His ranking places him 3 points behind the Senate Minority Whip, William Payne of Albuquerque and one point ahead of the Minority Leader, Stuart Ingle of Portales. The Minority Caucus Chair, Steve Neville of Farmington is in the same grouping, standing 8th, at 57%.

Mr. Hensley, as a first-time candidate, has no votes and no record with which to compare.

Republicans end up being urged to run a circular firing squad. As we tentatively forecast, based on reports we had received about the activities of Steve Pearce, Anissa Tinnin, and others, several Republicans are now challenging sitting Republican incumbents in the legislature. The RPNM had denied this, but we turned out to be correct. 

It now appears they have guided even currently sitting Republican state representatives to spend enormous resources attacking other Republicans who already hold seats. This may represent hundreds of thousands of dollars of expenditures that could be spent trying to unseat Demcorats. Democrats hold the state senate 26-16 and the State House, 46-24. Only in New Mexico would you see a state party so ill-led as to have these undertakings. 

GOP LEGISLATIVE PRIMARIES

Senate District 19

Incumbent Republican James P. White is being challenged by a sitting Republican State Representative, Gregg William Schmedes. 

We interviewed Representative Schmedes by telephone, asking his motivation, considering the fact that, in terms of Republicans capturing the Senate, the outcome of this race will not move the ball one inch down the field. Here are Schmedes' responses:

Schmedes: "Jim is a good guy and primaries are misunderstood. Jim is a nice person. But the district is a conservative district and it deserves to have conservative representation."

NMPJ: Are you saying Senator White is not a conservative?

Schmedes: "I won't say that. I feel it's best to let Jim describe himself."

NMPJ: Well, if you say the district should have conservative representation, that implies that you believe the district does not have conservative representation at this time.

Schmedes: "Yes, it does. That's right. This was not my personal idea in the first place. It came from people I met with who wanted different representation. Jim is a good guy. It's going to be a good race. We have talked and we've agreed to remain collegial in the campaign."

Representative Schmedes was cordial and forthright. 

We also interviewed Senator White by phone, asking his view of the impending contest. Here is his take:

White: "I believe we are both good legislators. The bad thing is that one of us will have to go home, and that's a shame because we shouldn't really be having this [primary]."

NMPJ: Representative Schmedes says the distinct deserves a conservative to represent it. How do you respond to that?

White: [laughs] "I don't see that as accurate. As I understand it, he's giving up his seat in the House because he's got a tough opponent and he doesn't think he can win that race. So he might as well try for the Senate seat."

NMPJ: What does this mean to you?.

White: "Well, there's a Democrat running for this seat also. So we now have to spend a lot of money on the primary that we really need for the general election." 

NMPJ: He says you two have talked about the primary.

White: "We have. I called him, and we agreed that we want to keep it clean and have no mud-slinging or that kind of campaign."

Senator White was cordial and forthright. 

RATINGS

Since Schmedes is assuming the role of the "conservative" in this race, we decided to try to obtain some kind of objective information about both candidates.  The American Conservative Union (ACU)* rates legislators in all 50 states as well as members of Congress. Their 2019 ratings for New Mexico are online.

It must be noted that the House and Senate ratings are based on different criteria. The House ratings include seven votes that senators did not get to make, and the Senators are rated on four votes that House members did not have a chance to vote on. So there are a total of 46 votes included in the survey, but 11 of them are not available to one chamber or the other. 

Those differences result in very different scores between the two houses. For example, the average Senate Republican score is 61%, while the average House Republican score is 80%—but the average scores would be much more similar if they were graded on the same criteria. 

The ACU rates Schmedes 22nd of 24 Republican state representatives. His rating is 71%, nine points below the average House Republican rating, which is 80%, though well ahead of the average House Democrat, whose rating is 15%.

Oddly enough, the two Republicans Schmedes placed ahead of are Rebecca Dow of Truth or Consequences (66%) and Bill Rehm of Albuquerque (66%). Neither Rehm nor Dow is considered to be a "liberal" or a "progressive." To the contrary, both enjoy strong conservative reputations in their districts as well as throughout the legislature.  

For his part, White comes in tied for 12th among the 16 remaining Republican senators. Significantly, one of the senators he is tied with is the Minority Leader, Stuart Ingle of Portales, hardly considered a progressive. The other is Gay Kernan of Hobbs, who is also not considered to be a liberal.

Their ratings are both 52%, which—as in the case of Schmedes in the House—is also 9 points below the Senate Republican average of 61%, though well above the 19% average enjoyed by Senate Democrats. In addition to tying Kernan and Ingle, White finished ahead of Ron Griggs of Alamogordo (50%) and Sander Rue (46%) of Albuquerque. Neither of those legislators is considered objectively progressive. 

Conclusion: Based on objective ratings, it would appear that Schmedes does not have a case for challenging White on the grounds that he himself has put forth: that the district needs a conservative. If Schmedes' logic is to be considered strong, then Steve Pearce (or Stuart Ingle himself) should have recruited people to run against Kernan, Ingle himself (oddly), Griggs, and Rue.

Likewise, Pearce or Jim Townsend should have had someone recruited to run against Schmedes, Rehm, and Dow. 

The point we are making is that Schmedes "logic," if that is what it is, fails of its own weight. It appears to be more of a conjured pretext rather than an objectively derived rationale. We must conclude that White is most likely closer to the truth in asserting that Schmedes saw a tough race ahead and decided to try for an office with a four-year term rather than a two-year.

(A review of the 2018 election returns shows that Schmedes won his house race by only 140 votes out of more than 16,000 cast: 8,198 to 8,058. This is much closer than it should have been, as Trump carried the district comfortably two years before, and the previous representative, James Smith, won his races by between two and three thousand votes. That kind of relatively weak showing may be part of Schmedes' motivation, especially since the 2018 Democrat nominee is running again this year.)

In any case, the motive has to be judged as likely springing from personal ambition and a personal desire, rather than to ideas or the welfare of the conservative movement or the Republican Party. 

* We also took a look at something called the Freedom Index, published by the Rio Grande Foundation. The problem with the Freedom Index is that the criteria used appear to be arbitrary, inconsistent, and subject to sudden changes and readjustments. One senator told us that "the RGF has switched its weighting of the issues two or three times since they were first published." 

Additionally, the RGF tends to be "libertarian" rather than conservative. This can end up misleading Republicans, who tend to be conservative. As an example, libertarians generally: favor abortion rights, support the legalization of controlled substances, support sanctuary cities, favor citizenship for illegals, support the transgender movement, and oppose a border wall. While libertarians and conservatives have many shared views—on taxation and the economy for example—it would be misleading to the bulk of Republican voters to evaluate elected officials based on libertarian criteria. 

BIDEN’s LOWEST LOWLIGHT for NEW MEXICO

“No ability for the oil industry to continue to drill. Period.”

With the Democratic Party’s nomenklatura issuing orders to all its membership to END THE NOMINATION PROCESS NOW, Sunday night's CNN Debate between Biden and Sander’s could very well represent Bernie’s last chance to change the dynamics of the Democratic race for that party’s nomination.

After losing the first three contests—badly—Biden has made a dramatic turnaround, first by winning the South Carolina primary. At which point, the hierarchy of his party excitedly seized on the moment to enlist their numerous media allies, who enthusiastically joined forces with the party to drive home the message: BIDEN’s the ONE! Bernie must be stopped!

Oddly, for a party that sees itself as intellectually superior to the Republicans—and especially to Trump supporters—the Democrats responded remarkably like sheep. Suddenly Biden was hailed by Democrat apparatchiks in unprecedented terms—and in terms dramatically and embarrassingly at odds with those same individuals’ appraisals just days before.

It simply didn’t matter.

“Who cares what we said before? Who cares if we believe any of this?” As James Carville and equally influential members of the Democrat “Politburo” shouted on TV:

“Everybody shut up! This thang is over! Just stop. Vote for Joe! Nothing else matters!”

The sense of the party is this:

If Joe can get by Bernie tonight, unharmed, without a self-inflicted wound, then we will be home-free. We will have a nominee behind whom we can all unite to defeat Trump. We must knock Bernie out tonight.

And, the thinking goes, there’s no need for any special maneuver or “punch” by Joe Biden tonight. All he has to do is survive—to make it to the bell. He can even take a lot of punches—doing the equivalent of a “rope-a-dope” for two hours. He only needs to be on his feet and breathing at 8:00 PM Mountain Daylight Time.

We have no idea if Bernie realizes the fate of his campaign is resting on tonight’s event. But it most likely is.

BIDEN can also be seen as a PLACE-HOLDER

We also believe that Biden represents not just his own candidacy. We suspect he is also being viewed as a place-holder. That is to say, once he is used to vanquish Sanders, the Democrats may well see him as someone who can be replaced—if need be—should his incapacity to lead become glaring obvious to all.

NEW RULES for DEMOCRAT DEBATES

For a satirical view on the Democrats’ debates (though one with possibly a great deal of truth), see our Editor Emeritus’s take here:

Washington, D.C. (AP) THE DNC’s NEW DEBATE RULES DISCOVERED; AND LEAKED TO MEDIA

??Beginning Sunday, all presidential debates are reduced from two hours to 30 minutes.

??Permanent moderators will be Donna Brazile, Candy Crowley, and Martha Raddatz. Debbie Wasserman-Schultz is the timekeeper and host.

??Because she has experience in this, Brazile has full discretion to provide all questions in advance to Biden.

??Biden will also be provided a TelePrompTer.

??Crowley is permitted to disagree with Sanders on the “facts” he may offer—and explain Bernie’s errors to the viewing audience.

??Raddatz is permitted to mildly harangue Sanders for “misstatements,” and admonish him as the need arises.

??Wasserman-Schultz will introduce the show with a 5-minute explanation of the rules and the assurance of neutrality by the Democratic National Committee.

??Moderators will ask one question each.

??Questions offered by moderators will last at least two minutes each, providing the background and a full explanation of the issue to be discussed.

??Sanders will always answer first and is given one minute to respond.

??Biden will always follow Sanders and is allowed a maximum of 30 seconds, though moderators may cut him off earlier, if mind-wandering is detected.

??There will be five 3-minute commercial breaks. The breaks will feature ads for Biden.

??Sanders is given 30 seconds to close.

??Biden will be thanked for his straightforward answers and will be asked to nod and smile as the credits roll.

??The delegate threshold for Tulsi Gabbard to qualify has been raised to one thousand.

Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.