The three-way Republican US Senate primary promises to be an interesting race to watch Tuesday night.  Supporters of Gavin Clarkson and Elisa Martinez are claiming that the race is very tight and say it will provide the surprise of the night. 

We don’t necessarily agree with that analysis, but we can't help but notice that there have been developments worth reporting.

In early April, Mark Ronchetti released a survey, which we wrote about, that showed him with a strong lead over the other candidates. However, on April 27th, a video surfaced in which Ronchetti was shown jokingly referring to President Trump as "the orange one.” This video was from some time back when he was still working for KRQE-TV, where he served as its chief meteorologist for many years.

Ronchetti's opponents pounced. Gavin Clarkson notified this publication and had a YouTube video up within hours, followed by TV ads.  

Ronchetti Situation became Similar to the Herrell-Chase Argument: Who Likes Trump? 

Clarkson was the first to put a television attack ad together on the subject, and then Martinez followed suit. With the Ronchetti video surfacing five full weeks ago, Ronchetti's opponents have had tons of time to drive home their negative message. And they have.

To be fair to Ronchetti, since he entered the senate race, he has consistently stated that he supports President Trump and his policies, but that did little to stave off the attacks. Clarkson and Martinez had picked up on lessons from the Herrell-Chase contest and had decided that—all other issues be damned—voters needed to decide the nominee on the basis of the purest and longest-lasting Trump love.

We have covered this same ridiculous "debate" before in our analysis of the CD2 GOP primary.

Readers of NMPJ know how we feel about this completely anti-intellectual, philistine, 100% lowbrow approach to political discussion and debate: We absolutely hate it. We think it is beyond ignorant and is totally demeaning to the voting public.

This is for a number of reasons. Perhaps most ironic of all—and to be fair, irony is lost on thousands of voters—Trump himself has hired his most vocal critics, including his current press secretary, who was brutal to him. At least Trump apparently recognizes that you need people of ability, even if they've made fun of you before. But what do we know?

In any case, we must ask: "Is Ronchetti strong enough to weather the storm?" His supporters think so and argue he is the strongest candidate with the most compelling message. 

Anti-Ronchetti Forces in Full Attack Mode

In fairness, the anti-Ronchetti forces have been in full attack mode since he entered the race in January and long before any video surfaced. Many chalk that opposition up to jealousy on the part of Republican Party elites and insiders who felt entitled to choose the Republican nominee themselves. They were apparently very offended by the entry of an outsider like Ronchetti stealing their thunder.

Albuquerque radio talk show host Eddy Aragon (at left) began attacking Ronchetti immediately and has only grown more venomous over the past few weeks. To be fair to Aragon, last fall he said that NONE of the Republican candidates were any good—he dismissed not only Clarkson and Martinez, but also then-candidates Mick Rich and Louie Sanchez as simply not measuring up to the stature required to beat the former casino dealer Ben Ray Lujan.

And who did measure up? Well, Eddy thought it was Eddy himself. In dismissing all of the Republican candidates, he said he would actually enter the race, as his ability to articulate the issues is essentially unparalleled. However, after that announcement didn't go over that big, Aragon announced he would run as an independent.

Then that didn't go over so well either. Ultimately, he failed to file for the office in February and in a reappraisal of the situation ended up declaring that Elisa Martinez was "the one" after all, and that he was "all-in" for her. 

UPDATE on Eddy: Aragon switched his endorsement from Elisa Martinez to Gavin Clarkson in May, noting that Clarkson had raised the most money and complaining that Martinez had "texted, rather than called," the one donor Aragon is influential with to ask for a contribution. We presume Eddy considered that to be "dissing" his donor, and that was just too much for him to take.

Since then, Aragon has spent the better part of this month relentlessly attacking Ronchetti on his radio show and in social media. Many dismiss Aragon as having a tiny audience, but Aragon claims to possess a megaphone capable of flipping races. He has told numerous people that he has a daily audience of many thousands. 

In any case, we’ll soon find out if Aragon is as powerful with Republican primary voters as he claims, or if his megaphone is really that of a carnival barker, with an actual audience of about 150, with him going unheard by the overwhelming majority of Republican voters.

Social Media Warriors: Crusaders or Trolls?

Meanwhile, former Democrat intern and campaign volunteer John Block has emerged over the months, continuously and mercilessly attacking Ronchetti on social media. The irony of a former Martin Heinrich intern and volunteer for Mayor Tim Keller's campaign awarding himself the position of judge and jury of the conservative Republican purity test has been noted by many.

Yet, Block (shown while working on the Keller mayoral campaign) is oblivious and, with a straight face, claims to be channeling the feelings of Republican primary voters and Trump supporters.  Block has gone so far as to expend funds on Facebook ads asking voters to vote against Ronchetti (this spending might raise a few eyebrows over at the Federal Elections Commission, but that’s a different subject). Again, we will find out on Tuesday if John Block is the shepherd of Trump voters like he claims.  

The Money Race

To his credit, Gavin Clarkson has surprised us, raising and spending the most money of anyone in the campaign, which refutes the narrative that we had actually believed, which was that Ronchetti probably led in fundraising. Clarkson correctly pointed that out to us recently. Clarkson's latest report showed $1,088,918 raised. 

Mark Ronchetti did raise an eye-popping $675,000 in his first quarter of fundraising and has continued to receive strong financial support even after the COVID-19 economic shutdown slowed fundraising for all candidates. Ronchetti’s campaign says his fundraising has been driven by thousands of small-dollar contributors who are looking for a conservative outsider. His most recent filing, however, has him at $850,343, lagging behind Clarkson by some $238,000.

As far as being outspent, the Ronchetti campaign says it is unconcerned and asserts it has been far and away the most efficient with its resources, avoiding the pitfalls that waste hudreds of thousands of dollars on consultants and vendor projects that do little to move voters. 

While Elisa Martinez had been lagging behind her competitors in overall fundraising, she has received a notable boost down the stretch with the help of a maximum contribution from the husband of State Republican Party Executive Director Anissa Galassini Tinnin and a handful of other party insiders, including Mark Murphy of Roswell.

Given that infusion, we can only conclude that her recent surge is extremely strong, as she has a vastly greater statewide TV presence than either Clarkson or Ronchetti. That being the case, we would presume that her $418,554 on her last report is not reflective of how the donations will have been in May, which have to have pushed her into something on par with Ronchetti now, and possibly even close to the fundraising frontrunner Clarkson.

It is clear that the establishment elite has tried to coalesce financial support behind Martinez in the closing weeks. This has allowed Martinez to come with a huge broadcast television buy down the stretch, which as we noted earlier, attacks Ronchetti for his “orange one” joke. 

This must bode ill for Ronchetti. The simple reason for that is that it would be bizarre and counter-productive for Republican Party leaders to fund an attack ad like Martinez's against someone who had increasingly been seen as the presumptive Republican nominee, UNLESS they sincerely believe the race is neck and neck and that such an ad could pull it out for Martinez.

We would further note that if that is not the case, then it would raise some extremely serious questions about their judgment and about their commitment to Republicans winning the seat in November. 

Insiders Coming on Board for Martinez

House Minority Leader James Townsend

Along a similar vein, Martinez has also earned the endorsements of many political insiders, including Republican House leader James Townsend. It begs the question again why Townsend would wade into this race at this late stage, unless he believed his endorsement would sway the electorate.

Either he believes that very strongly, or he will have quite a bit of egg on his face on Tuesday. This is especially true since he is the Trump campaign chair in the state. Having the position of Trump Campaign Chair would cause most thoughtful and knowledgeable political leaders to remain strictly neutral during a primary season—in every single race—so as not to offend Republicans whose unified support they will need, and so as not to embarrass the President.

But Townsend is defying that norm, running all over the state, involving himself in every primary he can weigh in on. Of course, this is the same Townsend who is one of the architects of the devastating and historic loss, in 2018, of over one-fourth of his own caucus, while he was spending all of his time playing in a congressional race (CD2) that he also lost. So who knows?

Former Senate candidate Louie Sanchez

Another very curious development is the new role taken on by former senate candidate Louie Sanchez, who has become a very vocal supporter of Martinez and a rabid critic of Ronchetti. This has occurred since mid-March, when Sanchez dropped out of the race after he was unable to secure 20% support at the GOP state nominating convention, and after he had raised only about $50,000, while spending over $100,000 and ending up in debt.

We say this is curious for him to suddenly claim to be the voice of the Republican grassroots because Sanchez has had no involvement at all in Republican politics prior to his short-lived Senate campaign. In fact, Sanchez had never even voted in a Republican primary. So, it is very strange for him to act as though he’s been working tirelessly in the Republican trenches for decades.

Nonetheless, this hasn’t stopped Sanchez from posting shrill attacks on Facebook against Ronchetti about the need to elect “true” Republicans. Some claim this is all driven by Sanchez’s consultants who are trying to set Sanchez up to run for Governor in two years. 

We see that as a plausible rationale for his advisors and handlers, however, we question the wisdom of this strategy. Rather than make a great name for Sanchez, this "strategy" seems more likely to mark Sanchez as some sort of troll and to increase the number of Sanchez detractors. In other words, his inexplicable vitriol and divisiveness could ultimately lead to a Sanchez campaign for governor being as short-lived as his ill-fated Senate bid. 

Nevertheless, Sanchez is all-in with Elisa Martinez and—along with Aragon, Townsend, and other state party leaders—we’ll find out how persuasive he is with Republican voters on Tuesday, or if he’s shot himself in his other foot. 

What About the Ronchetti Campaign?

For his part, as best we can tell, Ronchetti appears undaunted by the attacks and has stayed largely focused on taking his message directly to Republican voters via social media and advertising. His television and radio ads have remained positive and they have driven a conservative message with a notably and relentlessly optimistic bent.

Those positive ads stand out on airwaves that have been flooded with negativity the past few weeks. It seems to us that Ronchetti is seeking to appeal to Republican primary voters in a specific and unique way that he hopes will also attract independents and conservative Democrats. 

To us, his approach has been one of textbook image-making, a candidate who is giving a positive, conservative message, while holding out the possibility of winning over voters in the fall. It's the same approach used by extremely "likable" candidates in campaigns past. Ronald Reagan comes to mind. It’s why so many Ronchetti supporters believe he is the only one capable of defeating Ben Ray Lujan in November.

It has to be said, however, that Ronchetti hasn't completely ignored his opponents. He has responded to the attacks against him in direct mail. We sift through post office trash, and we've found mail pieces in which he is pointing out that Elisa Martinez failed to pay her 2010 state income taxes for 8 years and previously worked for a liberal immigration group called the “Libre Initiative.”  That group openly supported amnesty for illegal aliens.

We've also seen mail in which Ronchetti has responded to Clarkson’s attacks by pointing out how Clarkson has supported liberal candidates and causes, including attending a pipeline protest in North Dakota in 2016 with a leftwing "environmental" group.

These mailers probably represent a very small part of the Ronchetti advertising campaign, but they are great uses of resources. He is able to target likely voters with the kinds of messages they need to see about both his opponents.

Meanwhile, the overwhelming bulk of his messaging has been conducted on television, where all voters, including Democrats and independents, are watching and where everyone can get a feel for his vision. Significantly, Ronchetti doesn't even mention his opponents at all on the TV screen.

We have to admire this approach in which his negative messaging is targeted via direct mail to likely primary voters, while his TV is all positive.

But will the Ronchetti strategy of remaining positive on TV work? Or will the negative attacks of his opponents—funded and supported by party elites—seal this outsider’s fate? 

We’ll find out on Tuesday evening, most likely by around 9 PM. Although, with this COVID-19 effect, the tabulating of absentee ballots may push that timeframe to 10 or even 11 PM. Who knows?

Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.