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CD 1 Special Election: Republicans in Danger of Blowing their Chances; Mismanagement of the Process Makes Picking a Bad Candidate More Likely

03/26/2021

Given the possibility of backlash against the extremism of the Biden-Harris Administration and the likelihood of a low turnout in the June 1st Special Election, the Republicans actually have at least an outside chance at an upset win in this district that is dominated by Albuquerque.

But the process the RPNM has set up may have doomed them to failure. For whatever reason, the Republican Party of New Mexico is rushing the decision-making process on their nominee for the upcoming Special Election to succeed former Congresswoman Debra Haaland, who had to resign her seat upon accepting the position of Secretary of the Interior.

The GOP Central Committee of the First Congressional District will hold a “Zoom” candidate forum tonight, then select the nominee tomorrow. Talk about a senseless schedule! In rushing things through, the party makes itself vulnerable to extremely bad decision-making.

In any case, here is our take on the announced candidates, in alphabetical order.

Eddy Aragon is almost certainly the worst possible candidate the Republicans could select. Aragon operates what some consider a semi-shady station on which he “sells” interviews to prospective candidates—something unheard of in legitimate broadcasting.

Additionally, he has only recently joined the Republican Party after trashing the party and almost all its candidates for most of the past decade.

In 2019 and 2020 alone, Aragon attacked every single Republican candidate for the US Senate, threatened to run as an independent, then at the last moment he registered Republican and threatened to enter the primary.

He did very similar things in the previous Albuquerque mayoral race, bowing out after gathering money for matching funds, but allegedly never accounting for those funds.

If the delegates are brain-dead enough to make him their nominee, Aragon would have to immediately explain what is difficult or impossible to explain in today’s world--- what appears to be pornographic or near pornographic materials and just plain crazy stuff.

He has published or re-tweeted photos and stories from what some would consider porn sites or near-porn sites for a number of years, including this topless photo of a very young woman. And then there are all these other weird posts:

As you can see, Eddy Aragon would quickly be made into an absolute joke by the Democrat Party. Republican hopes would be gone in an instant.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Michaela Chavez

As far as can be determined, Chavez is respected both as a volunteer in Bernalillo County politics as well as having been the nominee for Senate District 13 last November, where she lost to incumbent Democrat Senator Bill B. O'Neill, 15,655 to 8,464.

So while from all appearances she has a solid reputation and is well-liked, garnering 34% of the vote in a race for the legislature is not necessarily an outstanding calling card for a nomination for Congress.

Jared Vander Dussen

Vander Dussen, an attorney, is another local Republican who has been active in the Bernalillo County GOP, volunteering his time and helping with legal matters. Vander Dussen, as we noted last year, made the best speech at the last GOP state convention, as he was running for the nomination for this same position, CD 1.

He is polished, makes eye contact, is cogent, logical, and makes a good impression. Again, his failing is that to this point he has not had electoral success. Despite making a better speech at the convention, Vander Dussen lost to eventual GOP nominee Michelle Garcia Holmes, 23,783 to 19,847, with Brett Kokinadis receiving 5,798.

Ronnie Lucero

Lucero is not well-known to Albuquerque GOP activiists, and as best we can tell, appeared on the scene just this year. He says he is a 1989 Del Norte High graduate and he did a two-year stint in the US Navy.

He has an attractive family, but the rest of his bio is somewhat vague. He apparently is the auto loan officer for Melloy Nissan in Albuquerque. He says his work in finance has shown him how New Mexico families "struggle with less than stellar credit" and that he is running for congress to "continue his fight...for all our families."

He adds that he knows that "common sense not blind ideology will serve New Mexico better in Washington."

Elisa Martinez

Martinez is another candidate who has run for office before but has come up short. Last year she lost the Republican nomination for US Senate to Mark Ronchetti, 89,216 to 41,240, with Gavin Clarkson finishing third at 27,471.

Martinez may be both helped and handicapped by her singular focus on the abortion issue. She can be helped in a Republican Central Committee meeting by the fact that so many active Republicans are focused on that issue, which could lead to her winning the nomination. However, that same factor would probably spell almost certain doom in left-leaning district.

Soft Republican women in Albuquerque's northeast heights tend to be pro-choice, and that doesn't even begin to consider how many hard-left Democrat men and women there are in the district. So her "Johnny-one-note" campaign style will almost certainly not serve her well on June 1st.

Additionally, like Susana Martinez, Elisa Martinez is a Hispanic woman running for office. However, unlike Susana, Elisa actually repeats that all the time, saying over and over again: "I am a Hispanic woman." (She also says she is Native American.)

In sharp contrast to Elisa, Susana Martinez let her appearance as a woman and her surname show that she was 1) a woman, and 2) also Hispanic, respectively. She didn't campaign on those two facts as if they were issues in and of themselves.

In other words, while Susana sounded like a conservative Republican emphasizing issues, Elisa sounds a little more like Kamala Harris, emphasizing identity politics. We'll see how this plays out.

Mark Moores

State Senator Mark Moores may have the upper hand with the more astute voters in that he is the only one of the seven candidates who has enjoyed actual visible electoral success. Moores played football for the UNM Lobos and earned a Bachelor of Arts degree in political science from the University of New Mexico. He then went on to earn an MBA from the Anderson School of Management.

In 2012, he won the Republican State Senate District 21 primary in a landslide with 50% of the vote in a three-way race. Then he went on to face the extremely haughty incumbent Democrat, Senator Lisa Curtis, who boasted about her electoral prowess and spent upwards of $400,000 to prove it.

But she didn't prove it. Moores absolutely crushed her, 14,067 to 10,768. He was subsequently re-elected in 2016 and also in 2020.

In terms of qualifications as well as electoral success, Moores appears to stand above the rest.

Tracy Trujillo

Trujillo may be the least known of all the candidates. She sent out a letter saying that she is from Minnesota, but that she has lived in New Mexico for "almost" six years. She is a wife and mother of 3 great boys, step-mother to 3 daughters and has 10 grandchildren.

She says that for four years she has been a "department head at Randall Lumber in Taos...in charge of power tools and Stihl chainsaws." She also says she has been President of womens leadership for New Mexico Farm and livestock bureau District 5 for two 2 years and for Taos County for 4 years

She asserts that she is running "because i believe that we need a hard working honest down to earth person who has had to work for everything."

Trujillo is the only candidate who does not live in the district, though living in the district is not a requirement for US House.She lives in Questa, in CD 3, which is currently represented by Democrat Teresa Leger-Fernandez.


Email us (at editor@newmexicopoliticaljournal.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

 

 

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

Religious Issues

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