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Albuquerque City Elections, Post Mortem. And for the Cangiolosi-Yates Team: Two Down, One to Go.What does the Future Hold for the GOP? Will they be out of power for 15 years?

11/15/2017

While NMPJ's primary purpose is to educate New Mexicans, our regular readership realizes we are right-of-center and we support Republicans. Thus our support of Wayne Johnson, and also Dan Lewis in the Albuquerque mayoral election. Unfortunately, not much is going well with the GOP state party leadership. And we have to acknowledge that. 

Two down, One to Go

Republican State Party Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi and his mentor Harvey Yates have now managed to lose both Republican control of the state House and the Albuquerque’s mayor’s race, and not only lose it, but in an epic — indeed historic — landslide.

Sadly, Yates and Cangiolosi have a very long history, and very consistent history, of losing races. But they were successful in coming to power within the party itself. They did so by sowing dissent and criticizing Governor Martinez within the confines of the 400 or so people who get themselves elected to the state central committee. 

But why? Why would they bother to do all that? It was because Yates wasn’t given control of the administration policies at its onset, and because Cangiolosi quickly fell out of favor with the Administration for using his position in the governor’s office to secure a plum job assignment at UNM.

Infighting in politics is nothing new. But the extreme degree to which these two have gone to sow discord is remarkable — and all Republicans are now paying the price.  What’s worse, they’re just not very good at campaigns and never have been.

2015

Let’s all remember where we were in 2015. Albuquerque had re-elected a Republican mayor in Albuquerque, Susana Martinez had been re-elected in a historic landslide — the biggest margin ever by a Republican gubernatorial candidate — and Republicans had control of the state House for the first time in 61 years.  Most rank and file Republicans were very happy, almost ecstatic, at having achieved so much in the extremely difficult environment that is the New Mexico playing field. 

But not Yates and Cangiolosi. Instead of trying to help build on those victories and being positive about the incredible achievements of a minority party, Cangiolosi and Yates traipsed around the state spreading discontent. The next thing any of us saw or heard, they were both going into overdrive to "wrest control" of the party away from Governor Martinez. She had won "too damn much" for their liking. 

We have noted that "some" Republicans in this very difficult state for the GOP simply cannot stand prosperity.  

FAST FORWARD TO ALBUQUERQUE

In the mayor's race, Albuquerque City Councilor Dan Lewis was widely seen as the choice of the Cangiolosi/Yates wing. He hired consultants accordingly. Moreover, after the initial election, those Lewis consultants even took over Robert Aragon’s race for city councilor. Aragon had led in the first round, but was forced into a runoff when he didn't reach 50%.

Unsurprisingly, both Lewis and Aragon lost. With Aragon coming from ahead to do so.

Why did this happen?  The answer is that running an effective state party organization is not as easy as some believe.  Cangiolosi has a well-established reputation for sidling up to those he perceives to be in a position of power and inviting them for a "cup of coffee."

Some describe this habit as "sucking up" to folks — and it probably has its place, somehow. But by and large it's irrelevant to the principal tasks before him: winning elections. In the final analysis, it appears Cangiolosi has no clue how to plan or execute a turnout operation. And the results speak for themselves.

2013

In 2013, Mayor Richard J. Berry was re-elected with 69% of the vote. The composition of the electorate that turned out to vote during those October days was 47% Democrat and 44% Republican — with the Republicans only 3 points behind the Democrats. That was far better than the electorate that the existing voter registration would have provided, which was 50-35 in favor of the Democrats.

So how did that happen? How did the Republicans manage to take a 15-point disadvantage and get an electorate in which that disadvantage was whittled down to just 3 points? Well, it didn’t just happen by magic. It was the product of a smart and well-executed Berry turnout operation.

So what happened this time?  Well, since the Berry operation was run by Martinez consultants, Cangiolosi and Yates certainly weren’t going to lean on them. Instead, they hired cronies and tried to do it themselves. The result?  The initial reports are that the composition of the electorate was 54% Democrat and 34% Republican. That is a stunning change.

This publication cannot remember a time when Republicans ever UNDER-performed the existing voter registration gap — regardless of the year — but that is precisely what happened here.

This comes as no surprise to us, as we are keen observers of history. And recent history — just looking back to 2016 — foreshadowed this race. As we wrote back then, it was Cangiolosi and Yates who took over the state House effort in 2016. They ran bad campaigns then, and it led to Democrats regaining the House, even as the Martinez team was defeating State Senator Michael Sanchez and electing Judith Nakamura to the state Supreme Court.

SO, WHAT'S NEXT? WILL IT BE 2032 BEFORE REPUBLICANS HAVE A CHANCE TO GOVERN?

We hope the GOP will figure out and understand that competence matters. If they don't, New Mexicans are in for 15 years of misery.

The all-important governor's race looms next year. And whoever is elected will have veto power over the vitally-important redistricting process in 2021.

It is important for everyone to understand that Republicans captured the state house in 2014 solely because Governor Martinez had veto power in 2011, forcing the process into the courts and into a compromise that provided at least a small measure of fairness.

If a Democrat is elected governor next year, and if the House of Representatives comes back with the same makeup the Yates-Cangiolosi team left it with, then Republicans are doomed until at least 2032. Republicans will be helpless to stop the most partisan redistricting in 30 years.

It has been 26 years — 1991 — since the Democrats last had total control of redistricting. Following the 1990 elections, Democrat Bruce King was governor, and Democrats had control of both the state house and state senate. As a result, redistricting was brutal. And the subsequent 1992 elections produced a 53-17 Democrat majority in the State House of Representatives and a 25-17 margin in the State Senate. 

This publication will of course support the right-of-center candidate Steve Pearce, but given the recent track record of the Cangiolosi-Yates team, which is closely allied with Pearce and will undoubtedly work with the same teams, the GOP could be staring a massive defeat right in the face.

If that happens, the Republican rank and file — and for that matter all New Mexicans — will suffer the consequences of the Cangiolosi-Yates personal agenda, which they have placed above the best interests of our state.


Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.


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Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

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