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Primary Election Review, Part 5: Doña Ana County (Part 2 of 2): The County Commission; Other Local Offices; Madrid Comes Out Okay

07/02/2018

[NOTE: Brief demographic and psephological analysis of Doña Ana County is shown at the bottom of this article.]

The June 5th Primary

THE COUNTY COMMISSION 

District 1: Open Seat in Gerrymandered District

District 1 is centered generally on the southwest part of Las Cruces, extending some 15 miles west and southwest from town. Billy Garrett won the seat in 2010 by a margin of 290 votes (4,844 to 4,554) over John Zimmerman. In 2014, Zimmerman went on to become a one-term state representative before being knocked out of office in the Republican House Caucus's debacle of 2016.

Meanwhile, Charles Wendler took on Garrett in 2014, getting beat by about 1,350 votes, while Susana Martinez was carrying the district by 111.

Unbeknownst to the GOP, in the 2011 redistricting, the county commission had heavily gerrymandered the district, reducing Republican strength by a net 1,200 votes—in other words, had the same district been in effect for Martinez's reelection, she would have carried it (the original District 1) by some 1,300 votes instead of 111. 

So this year, John Zimmerman is making a second run at this commission seat. He had to overcome fellow Republican, Roberto Martinez, 820 to 195, to get the nomination. But as discussed, Zimmerman faces a much steeper uphill battle than he did in his first try eight years ago.

In 2016, Clinton beat Trump here 8,243 to 4,839, with Johnson and the others getting 1,427. Nora Espinoza ran 25% ahead of Trump in the district, but still got beat 8,144 to 5,841. What this means is after the 2011 gerrymander, it's going to be tough for a Republican to win it.

Sensing a relatively easy hold, five Democrats jumped into the race. The lone Anglo, the famed Gay marriage activist Lynn Ellins, beat the four Hispanic candidates by getting 37% of the vote. He will be heavily favored in November.

Commission District 1, Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   Votes      %
Lynn Ellins   1,076   37.01
Antoinette M. Reyes      690   23.74
Arturo Uribe      364   12.52
Orlando Jimenez      562   19.33
Eugene Charles Alvarez      215     7.40
TOTAL VOTE   2,907 100.00

District 3: The Only Elected Republican 

Incumbent Ben Rawson, the only elected Republican county official this decade, won this seat in 2014 by a margin of 118 votes, slightly better than Governor Martinez's 92-vote margin in the district. Ironically, District 3 was actually the worst of the five districts for Martinez that year, as she carried all five of them, including the one pegged to Sunland Park. This made Rawson's achievement all the more significant. 

The bad news came in 2016 with Trump polling only a third of the vote, losing to Clinton by 20 points, or a margin of 2,800 votes. On the vaguely encouraging side, Judith Nakamura did much better during that same campaign, losing 6,088 to 7,606. Can a born-and-raised Las Crucen make up the 1,500 votes that Nakamura lost by? It will be a tough go, but Rawson has gained a strong reputation for common sense, leadership, and making a positive impression on the voters. He has a chance, though a difficult task ahead.

Rawson's Democrat opponent sports the gender-ambiguous first name, Shannon, as in Shannon D. Reynolds. Though 85% of the Shannons in America are female, this candidate is male. In our view, this adds to Rawson's challenge in that female candidates have enjoyed a statistical edge in New Mexico going back over 20 years. Reynolds and Rawson won their primaries unopposed.

District 5: Another Gender Bender First Name in an Open Seat

District 5's Democratic County Commissioner John Vasquez felt forced to resign this past winter. Many Democratic Party observers see Vasquez as having been yet another victim of the ongoing efforts of the newcomer, Anglo-dominated "progressive" wing of the Democratic Party. In their view, the progressives are tightening their grip by systematically forcing out what they regard as old-line "traditional" Hispanic politicos.

In any case, Vasquez was forced out and Governor Martinez appointed retired banker Republican Kim Hakes to fill the vacancy. Hakes, who lost to Vasquez in 2016, won the Republican primary unopposed. As with the case of Shannon Reynolds, Kim may benefit from the ambiguity of his first name as 84% of Americans named Kim are female, which as pointed out above, is advantageous. (In 2016, Hakes ran as "Kimberly," a name which census records show is correlated with females 99.63% of the time.)

Governor Martinez carried this district with 57% of the vote in 2014, however, Trump got only 40% two years ago. Somewhat more encouraging, however, both Nora Espinoza and Judith Nakamura got nearly 48% of the vote as Trump was being thumped. The bad news is that both Espinoza and Nakamura ran about 500 net votes ahead of Hakes. Bottom line is Hakes has a chance, but he's really going to have to step it up over his last effort.

On the Democratic side, Karen M. Trujillo ran extremely impressively, getting a big majority in a four-way race, walloping well-known frequent candidate Oscar Vasquez Butler as well as Dickie Apodaca, beating each by margins approaching 3 to 1. She appears to be formidable.

District 5, Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE Votes     %
Oscar Vasquez Butler 458 17.51
Karen M. Trujillo 1,403 53.63
Manuel A. Sanchez 199 7.61
Dickie Apodaca 556 21.25
TOTAL VOTE 2,616  

SHERIFF

Incumbent Democrat Sheriff Enrique Kiki Vigil was defeated in the Democratic Primary, finishing third in a five-person race. The winner was Kim Kristine Stewart, seeking to become New Mexico's second female sheriff (DeBaca County has the first). The Republican she will face is former two-term sheriff Todd Garrison. Garrison was narrow victories in 2006 and 2010, bucking the county-wide trend each time. He won by about 1,500 votes while the average Republican candidate was losing by 3,500 votes.

But the county has become more favorable to Democrats in the interim, with average Republican losses about 7,000 instead of 3,500. Garrison faces an uphill battle.

CANDIDATE   Votes      %
Larry Anthony Roybal  726   6.06
Edward Eddie Lerma  3,368   28.06
Enrique Kiki Vigil 3,141   26.17
Kim Kristine Stewart 3,810   31.74
Carlos H. Preciado  958   7.98
TOTAL VOTE 12,003 100.00

District Court Judge

An opening on the 3rd Judicial District Court attracted a crowd. Grace B. Duran won a 5-way Democrat primary, and did so impressively, more than 1,500 votes ahead of her closest competitor, and way ahead of the field. No Republican filed.

Democratic Primary

CANDIDATE   Votes      %
Jeanne H. Quintero   1,284   11.36
Isabel D. Jerabek   1,227   10.85
Richard M. Jacquez   2,745   24.28
Dania R. Gardea   1,747   15.45
Grace B. Duran   4,301   38.05
TOTAL VOTE 11,304 100.00
 

Magistrate Judge, Division 1: An Update

Embattled Magistrate Judge Samantha Madrid (see story below, "Debacle") appears to have had a happy ending to her troubles. Last Thursday she filed as an independent candidate for her own seat, and no one else filed. So she is on her way to re-election unopposed in November as an independent. Our guess is she will re-register (yet again) as a Democrat next year, and she will stay hitched to the majority party in Doña Ana County—regardless of how the DA's office treats her.


Doña Ana County (pop. 209,233). County Seat: Las Cruces (pop. 97,618). Major Towns/Villages: Sunland Park (pop.14,106); Anthony (pop. 9,360); Mesilla (pop. 2,196) and Hatch (pop. 1,648). Other Census Designated Places (CDP): Berino, Chamberino, Chaparral, Doña Ana, Fairacres, Garfield, La Mesa, La Union, Mesquite, Organ. Placitas, Radium Springs, Rincon, Rodey, Salem, San Miguel, San Pablo, San Ysidro, Santa Teresa, University Park, Vado, and White Sands.

Doña Ana County is the second largest population center in the state. It has the state's richest farming valley, and is among the nation's leaders in the cultivation of pecans, with alfalfa, cotton, chiles, and various vegetable crops also grown. With a fertile agricultural valley, and being the home to the state's Land Grant university along with its location at the junction of I-25 and I-10, near both El Paso and Ciudad Juarez, Las Cruces and Doña Ana County enjoy advantages for growth not found in most of New Mexico.
 
Voting Behavior

Politically, the county has leaned heavily in favor of Democrats for several decades and is continuing a fairly strong trend that is even more favorable to them. However, as recently as 2014, Republicans found surprising support here—at least at the statewide level—when Governor Susana Martinez (a Las Cruces resident) Secretary of State Dianna Duran, and Attorney General candidate (also from Las Cruces) won narrow victories in the county. Locally, however, it has been tough-sledding for Republicans, and it's getting tougher.

2014

2014 was an anomaly. A little more than two weeks before the election, Obama hit a 40% approval rating, the lowest of his presidency to that point. Among likely voters, Republicans led the generic ballot 50-43 (an overwhelming margin for them) and among independents, they led 51-32. Democrats were not enthused about the ineptitude of Obama and were not motivated at all to turn out, and they did not do so—either nationally or in New Mexico. Yet, despite the incredibly favorable national mood, Republicans in Doña Ana County were unable to muster a single county-wide win for a local candidate and only three statewide wins out of eight races, and even those were by modest margins.

2016

And as the 2016 election revealed, it is going to be difficult for Republicans going forward. It appears that the average result — for federal offices, statewide offices, and local offices — is settling in at about 57-43 advantage for the Democrats. Republicans have won some closely contested districted races, but that's about the extent of their recent success.


2018 PRIMARY

Magistrate Judge: A Debacle in Divison 1

All seven of the county's magistrate judges are Democrats, and because they are all elected at-large no Republican even challenges them. But last year one of the incumbents, Division 1 Magistrate Samantha Madrid, went to the Motor Vehicle Division office to get a new driver's license. To comply with national voter registration laws, MVD has to ask visitors if they want to register to vote or update their registration. 

We are told that Judge Madrid was miffed at the local Democrat District Attorney's office for repeatedly bumping her from cases—apparently, she is perceived by that office as not a particularly stellar jurist. She also was steamed that the local Democrat establishment did not back her up in what is something of a low-level simmering dispute. So, for four minutes (it's on video) in front of an MVD touch screen, Madrid decided to register "DTS." It was, by all accounts, a fit of pique.

Fast forward to filing day. Ms. Madrid files for the Democratic Primary, but of course she's no longer a Democrat. She is disqualified by the filing officer. She protests. She goes to court — where she wins a bizarre ruling from a state district court, ordering the Secretary of State to place her on the ballot. The Secretary of State points out that she is not the filing officer, the county clerk is, and that she has no authority to place Madrid's name on the ballot. Ultimately, the case ends up at the Supreme Court which, without even needing to hold a hearing, rules in favor of the filing officer and Madrid is barred from the primary ballot.

Of course it all sounds like yet another chowderhead story we sometimes find in the Land of Enchantment. But all may yet end well for Judge Madrid. This coming Thursday, June 28, is the filing date for independent candidates, which she qualifies for, for write-in candidates, which she qualifies for, and for minor party candidates, which she qualifies for. She had to choose the path that is best for her.

The signatures requirement is now somewhat more onerous. She only needed 213 signatures (according to the Secretary of State*) to qualify as a candidate in the Democratic Primary. But now, if she chooses to run as a minor party candidate she needs 413*, and if she wants to be an independent candidate she needs 1,240.*


Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

Media Watch

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


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