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OPENING UP PRIMARY ELECTIONS to OUTSIDE GROUPS: Republicans and DTS Voters Could Wreak Havoc in Democratic Primaries. WE HAVE A BETTER SOLUTION: Independent Primaries.

03/01/2019

House Bill 93 allows voters who are registered as independents or who have declined to state a party affiliation (DTS), and those who are affiliated with minor political parties, to vote in the primary elections of the Democratic and Republican Parties. In other words, it is to open up the two major parties' candidate nomination process to voters who are not members of those parties.

Meanwhile, Democrats and Republicans are prohibited from jumping over to participate in each other's primaries. This new privilege will extend only to the voters who don't appear to care for the Democrats or Republicans—either that, or they can't bring themselves to become members of those parties. 

This bill has already passed through two committees and heads to the House Judiciary Committee tomorrow. Thus far, Democrats in the two committees have unanimously supported the concept of "non-member" participation, and the Republicans have unanimously opposed the idea.

WHY ARE THE VOTES OF PEOPLE WITH NO POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY MORE IMPORTANT?

What is not understood is why Representative Damon Ely, Natalie Figueroa, Joy Garratt, Melanie A. Stansbury, and Dayan Hochman-Vigil believe that the votes of some 297,000 DTS/independent voters are so much more important than the 970,000 Democrats and Republicans.

Do these five legislators believe that the lack of a particular worldview, philosophy, or ideology is a stand-alone virtue that places them in a superior moral position over that of Democrats? Over the Republicans?

Why must people who don't really care for either major party be given extraordinary influence in each party, while the voters who have chosen membership in those same parties are not afforded opportunities to tinker with each other?

These five representatives clearly believe that DTS/independent voters possess some higher degree of virtue than major party voters— a virtue so highly valued and favored that it merits allowing them to decide who the major party nominees will be.

PRACTICAL PROBLEMS PRESENTED

An obvious potential problem with this new legislation is the opportunity by non-member voters to "game" the primary election processes in each party. That is to say, the non-members are being presented the opportunity to be decisive in the selection of Democratic or Republican Party candidates by voting heavily in favor of candidates who would otherwise be rejected by the actual party membership.  

Democrats currently make up 46% of the electorate or about 582,000 voters. Republicans account for 30% or about 387,000. Under this bill, about 297,000 voters who are currently not permitted to vote in primaries will suddenly be able to do so. That's the 23% of the voters who are either DTS, independent, or belong to minor parties.

(The Libertarians currently enjoy major party status and will have their own primary. Like the Democrats and Republicans, they would not be allowed to jump into other party primaries.)

OPPORTUNITIES FOR REPUBLICANS IN SANTA FE COUNTY (and Democrats elsewhere)

The opportunities for mischief on the part of voters who don't belong to either major party could certainly extend to major party members in counties where their parties have become irrelevant at the local level—where their parties no longer even bother to nominate candidates for county offices.

For example, in Santa Fe County, the Democratic Party primary decides the outcome of all county races, while the Republican Party usually does not even field a candidate for the general election. (In 2018, there were 13 local primary contests for districts wholly within the boundaries of Santa Fe County. The Democrats fielded 21 candidates in their primary while no one—zero candidates—filed in the Republican primary.)

Under this bill, it would be advantageous for all 15,000 Republicans in Santa Fe County to re-register as DTS so they could ask for a Democratic Party ballot. It would actually be the only way in which Republican Party participation is meaningful: after all, they have nothing else to do on primary election day.

HOUSE DISTRICT 46 EXAMPLE

Republicans re-registering DTS 28 days before the primary could then vote in the Democratic primary and could be the deciding factor in close races.

As an example, the 2018 House District 46 primary between Carl Trujillo and Andrea Romero, with the candidates separated by only 313 votes out of over 5,800 cast, would almost certainly have had its outcome altered if a substantial percentage of the District’s 2,600 Republicans suddenly had had a role to play on primary day. And this is without yet considering the nearly 4,000 voters in the district who are registered as DTS and who under this bill would not even need to re-register.

Looking ahead to 2020 in this disrict, if this bill becomes law there could well be an organized, concerted effort to get rid of Andrea Romero by way of the Democratic Primary.

Given the mountains of new information that emerged after Romero was elected—information that makes it appear that she may be a complete fraud, both with regard to her financial misfeasance as well as what many consider to be fraudulent charges against Trujillo—both the 4,000 DTS as well as the 2,600 Republicans could be worked hard by a Democratic candidate.

A Democratic challenger who could motivate and mobilize a sizable percentage of those 6,600 voters could perhaps—relatively easily—begin to make Romero's 3,076 primary votes look fairly small. Assuming the 2,763 votes against her remained against her, she might get beat by a wide margin.

OTHER SANTA FE DISTRICTS

It isn't just House District 46 where this scenario could play out. House Districts 45, 47, and 48 are all solidly Democratic districts in which the only possible way an incumbent Representative can be defeated is in the Democratic Primary. And few Democrats participate. 

As an example, in HD 45, unopposed incumbent Jim Trujillo received 3,588 votes in the primary, while 3,700 DTS/other voters stood idly by, not to mention the 2,500 Republicans who were twiddling their thumbs. Under this bill, if Republicans decided they wanted to play a role,

Trujillo, or his opponents, could be looking at 6,200 voters to "mine" for their own cause—and none of these voters would have the Democratic Party's interests at heart, or give a hoot in hell about Democrat Party ideology, goals, or objectives.

In HD 47, House Speaker Brian Egolf, who got fewer than 5,500 votes in his primary, could see 8,700 new voters become easily eligible.

If you are a Democrat dissatisfied with the performance of the Democratic House, or with Egolf's role in imposing dictatorial powers from the speaker's chair, or in guiding the Democratic Party in a direction you disapprove of, you could offer independent voters a new, decisive role

Even more telling, you might be able to motivate huge numbers of Republicans to temporarily re-register just to be able to have the satisfaction of "getting rid" of someone they disapprove of—albeit in favor of someone they disapprove of less ardently. The degree of satisfaction they might feel is a motivation that shouldn't be overlooked.

The same dynamic could exist for Linda Trujillo in HD 48, where she got fewer than 4,000 votes in the primary, but could see some 6,300 newly eligible voters under this bill. 

REPUBLICAN COUNTIES COULD SEE THE SAME PHENOMENON

The same dynamic would be true in Republican-dominated counties like Lincoln or Otero—where it would be advantageous for all of the Democrats to re-register DTS and ask for a Republican primary election ballot. Democrats filed no candidates at all in Lincoln, Roosevelt, and Lea Counties, and only one or two in Curry, Sierra, Chaves, and Otero, all of whom were beaten in the general election, all but one very badly beaten.

LOCAL AND STATEWIDE

Depending on the ideology of the Democrats or the philosophy of Republican candidates who file in March to run in their primaries, one could foresee concerted efforts by 3rd parties, Political Action Committees, or other special interest groups, perhaps using “voter education” campaigns through Independent Expenditure entities, to get voters to reregister between March and the close of registration (first week of May).

They would be asking voters who are registered with a major party to change to DTS so they could influence the outcome of a primary. If the Democratic Party had two primary candidates—with one being more conservative than the other—then the Republicans could be encouraged to reregister as DTS in order to push the vote to the more conservative candidate, or Democrats could be encouraged to reregister in order to push a Republican primary outcome to the more moderate or more liberal choice. 

A BETTER SOLUTION: An Independent Primary

As a matter of public policy, it would be much more preferable for independent or minor party voters and those who desire to be candidates to hold a primary for Independent/DTS voters.

Given the vast improvements in elections technology, including the ease with which ballots can be printed on demand, a separate independent primary would add a relatively minor additional cost to our elections. 


Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

 

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

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