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John Wilkes Booth Reviews the Lincoln Administration—And Milan Simonich Weighs in to "help" the Republican Party. But Guess What? It's Bad Advice. Where Does the Party Go from Here? What is the Future of the NM GOP?

11/15/2018
Some Republicans are guffawing about Santa Fe New Mexican reporter Milan Simonich generously offering his insights into the inner workings of the state party and offering his "best appraisal" of the situation, all in the "best interests" of the Grand Old Party. Right.
 
Simonich's column this week is roughly equivalent to John Wilkes Booth stepping forward to offer an objective, dispassionate review of the accomplishments of the Lincoln Administration.
 
(Privately, in numerous Republican circles, Milan Simonich is referred to as "Slobodan Milosevich," for his well-known murderous approach to the GOP, complete with mean-spirited and often vicious attacks on Republican candidates and officials.)
 
What Simonich does in this week's largely pedestrian, simple-minded "advice" column is insult a lot of good people, and try to steer New Mexicans a long ways away from understanding the political and psephological realities of New Mexico. 
 
So Let's Look at Simonich's "Love Letter" to the Republican Party in New Mexico
RINGSIDE SEAT 
By Milan Simonich
Nov 11, 2018, from the Santa Fe New Mexican 

"GOP’s best hope is candidate who just lost in a rout" 

NMPJ: Milan's headline sets the tone for his bad advice. It would be a rare thing indeed for when any party's "best hope" is a candidate who "just lost in a rout." (But Simonich's advice just gets "better.")

"The Republican Party of New Mexico should be sued for false advertising. It’s a 98-pound weakling that still uses an elephant as its mascot. Republicans lost every statewide race in last week’s election. They dropped nine seats in the state House of Representatives while picking up one. They lost every contested seat on the state’s two highest appeals courts."

NMPJ: This is no news at all— tell us something we don't know about the NM GOP.

"The Republicans still claim red as their color. But the reddest New Mexico turned in this election was the burgundy shade of state Republican Chairman Ryan Cangiolosi’s embarrassed face."
 
NMPJ: Actually, Republicans have never claimed "red" as their color. That was imposed on them by the national networks beginning in 2000. Prior to that, they were linked with the color blue. Many long-time Republicans despise the "red" label. They know it is anti-intellectual, and ahistorical. 

"So feeble are the Republicans that 71-year-old Steve Pearce, who just took a terrible beating in the race for governor, is their best hope for the 2020 election." 

NMPJ: Sez who? What election in 2020? What office? That's not consistent with what we are hearing coming out of Lea County.

"Pearce remains stronger than the collective organization around him."

NMPJ: What the hell does that mean? Pearce IS "the collective organization around him." Simonich must either be having an out-of-body experience or must think the GOP is having one. Pearce and whatever is left of the Republican Party of New Mexico are fully integrated. They are he. He is they. He built the present structure and supplied it with people. He is at the root of the destruction of the party. 

"He said he had no plans to retire, even after the 14-point thumping he took in the election for governor. His statement turned into the best news of the night for Republicans." 

NMPJ: Again, where does Milan get such an assumption? Did he go back and re-read this sentence? If so, how did it manage to stay in the column?

"Pearce seemed to have no real prospects after Herrell claimed she was heading to Congress from the 2nd District. Pearce gave up that seat to run for governor. Now he might try to reclaim it, as he did after surrendering the seat to run for the U.S. Senate in 2008."

NMPJ: Maybe he could. And he would certainly be a better philosophical fit for the district—that much we grant. No question. But imagine the contrast in the public mind—and the way the media would portray it: A young, dynamic, good-looking enthusiastic Hispanic woman versus someone who would just be accused of trying to get back a seat, just for the sake of getting it back.

"Democrat Xochitl Torres Small, who turns 34 years old this week, is the congresswoman-elect in the 2nd District...Along with the usual challenges of being a freshman representative in the gridlock of Washington, Torres Small will have to start campaigning again almost immediately. She must raise tens of thousands of dollars every month for her re-election bid. It’s an insane system..."

NMPJ: Pedestrian observations. Who among us doesn't know all of this?

"As for the Republicans, Cangiolosi’s successor as leader of the party has nowhere to go but up." 

NMPJ: That is true. It is true anytime you've hit rock bottom. But again, this is hardly a helpful observation.

"Cangiolosi failed to enlist good candidates for many races. By default, a self-promoting contractor named Mick Rich became the Republican nominee for the U.S. Senate."

NMPJ: This is BS, pure and simple. First of all, most candidates are not "enlisted" by the party chair.  Oddly enough, the couple of candidates that Cangiolosi and Pearce did recruit together had to drop out—as they had not done due diligence in their background checks on them.

Second, there was nothing wrong with Mr. Rich, and Slobodan's insulting dismissal of him as "self-promoting" is just a plainly stupid thing to say. What political candidate is not "self-promoting"? You think Gary Johnson was not a "self-promoting contractor" when he ran for governor in 1994? 

The reality is no party wants any candidate for any office who is not self-promoting and enthusiastic about selling himself or herself to the voters. (Remember Republicans: Mr. Simonich is not your friend. Be careful as you weigh his "caring counsel.")

Third, the Republican Party had quite a number of superb candidates—including a slew of very fine, highly respected judicial candidates, Hank Bohnhoff and Emil Kiehne come to mind as having reputations at the very top of New Mexico legal profession, but all five statewide candidates were very highly regarded throughout the state.

"An agile party chairman would have recruited somebody to run against Rich in the Republican primary. Instead, Cangiolosi stuck with Rich, ceding the Senate race to first-term Democratic incumbent Martin Heinrich."

NMPJ: Wrong. Party chairman cannot get involved in primaries.

"Still, history tells us there might be hope for Republicans. Only four years ago, it was New Mexico Democrats who were pulverized in an election. Sam Bregman, then the Democratic Party chairman, presided over that disaster."

NMPJ: This is a great opportunity to make a point that allows every New Mexico Republican to understand the relative disadvantages the Party operates under in the Land of Enchantment. What does "pulverize" mean? In New Mexico elections, the term means very different things for each party.  If the Democrats lose 4 of 8 statewide races, as they did in 2014, that's a big setback for them. But their party fundamentals are so strong that even in a "big Republican year" they are still winning half the time. Not so with the GOP. When the Republican Party gets "pulverized" they can lose 12 out of 12, as they did this year. The Republican ceiling is limited. The Democrat ceiling is unlimited. The "floor" for the GOP is zero, but for the Democrats their "floor" is so high they can weather the worst of storms and keep right on winning at least half the races. 

"If there is to be a turnabout this time, Republicans need to recruit good candidates. Their bench is empty, except for Pearce. Party faithful have to hope he’s like an old Timex watch. He just took a licking. Can he keep on ticking until they find contenders?"

NMPJ: But do New Mexico Republicans really want on old Timex watch as the symbol of its leadership? We have little doubt that's what "neutral" unbiased "reporters" like Milan are pushing for. But is that what the possibilities for leadership in the future of the Republican Party really are? Or should be? We don't think so.

Or course Milan doesn't think outside the box of this current event, nor is he the least bit interested in doing so. All of this leads us to our final point:

THE FUTURE OF THE NEW MEXICO GOP is LIKELY NOT YET KNOWN to ANYONE 

Did anyone know even a year ago, much less two years ago, that Xochitl Torres Small would be a congresswoman in a year or two? We don't think so.

Did anyone know in 2008 or 2009 that a relative unknown DA in Las Cruces would be elected Governor of New Mexico in 2010? The answers to both those questions provide clues about the future of the New Mexico GOP.

New Mexico Republicans are not restricted to the gentle advice of hostile reporters. Nor are they locked in to candidates of the past, especially failed candidates. Somewhere there are people none of us has ever heard of who are thinking about entering politics.

For all we know, there could be a 40-year-old politically-unknown Hispanic woman entrepreneur somewhere in the state who has already made a fortune in business. Now she's thinking about whether she can make a difference in state government. She may be wealthy, a self-funder. She may be from a traditional New Mexico Democrat family, someone who doesn't like the direction her party has gone—someone who thinks Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are economic illiterates. She may have already switched parties. And she may feel she's stood on the sideline long enough. 

We chose to suggest that one demographic, and this one possible story, but in reality the possibilities are endless. And that's the way we believe Republicans should be thinking as they ponder their future here in New Mexico.


Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

 

 

 

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Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

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