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Payoff for Pearce Operatives? Lea County Deep Pocket Republicans Very Unhappy with Pearce. Former Speaker Don Tripp Endorses John Rockwell for GOP Party Chair. Significant because Tripp was Perfectly Situated to Observe the Pearce/Yates Clique's Attacks on Governor Martinez. One Major Difference in Fundraising Expenses.

12/05/2018

Lea County Deep Pocket Republicans Very Unhappy with Pearce

We are hearing a lot of grumbling coming out of Lea County these days, and we heard it almost as strong in the months leading up to the general election. It seems a lot of former Pearce backers were more than a little upset at what they consider to be Pearce's virtual sponsorship (if not invention) of Yvette Herrell as his heir apparent.

His decision to do so came at the expense of popular Hobbs Republican Monty Newman—again, supposedly just because Newman had been a cooperative state chair who worked very effectively with Governor Martinez.

Pearce's hand-picked selection did defeat Newman, but the whole affair left a sour taste in Lea County—not to mention the fact that Herrell turned out to be a very weak candidate. 

Many angry Lea County Republicans believe that Monty Newman was far and away the stronger candidate and a solid conservative.

They believe Monty would have easily defeated the Democrat in the general election and believe that Pearce’s intervention—and specifically the hundreds of thousands of dollars that Pearce Finance Chair Mark Murphy spent against Monty in the primary—ultimately backfired in that it ended up costing the GOP the congressional seat.

After all, Trump carried CD 2 by 10 points—one point better than he did in the entire state of Texas. Does anyone believe the GOP cannot win Texas? The loss of CD2 is devastating, and many Republicans lay it at the feet of Pearce.

Payoff for Pearce Operatives?  

Pearce's run for GOP Chair surprised a lot of people, but many see it as a means of providing a payoff for Pearce operatives. Will Andrea Goff retain her unusually lucrative sinecure as the Pearce machine fundraiser. (See below for how much she cost the campaign, compared to the exact same position in the Martinez organization.) Also, what kind of roles will disastrous administrators like John Billingsley, Harvey Yates, Cangiolosi, and Murphy have? These are just some of the questions being raised.

It is true that the Pearce political machine has established that it can assemble on short notice the usual Pearce supporters, paid and volunteer, to push his personal ambitions to success, at least within the party structure. However, it is also true that Pearce ’s traditional flops in his three efforts at statewide office (he also ran for US Senate in 2000) are also attributable to these same paid and not-paid supporters and his traditional focus on the existing party insiders. 

Pearce’s "inside-baseball" appeal, in large part, has been based on his team’s attack on what may be the last Republican Governor for a generation or more. That kind of stuff has played well with the kinds of easily disgruntled and constantly griping central committee members who wear goofy Cat-in-the-Hat hats, or dress in vests festooned with 350 pins from places they've been or Kiwanis Club chapters they've visited. In some conventions, those kinds of "activists" have actually held a majority.

(We are not picking on the GOP. Democrats tell us their Central Committee has similar kinds of members.)

Pearce's tactics have also played well with some disappointed job seekers and favor merchants, but there are time limits for these kinds of games, and—as Pearce has proven time and again—they are not springboards to actual success where it counts: in general elections against the Democrat Party. 

A Major Difference in Fundraising Between the Pearce Camp and the Martinez Party Operation

It has been pointed out to us that Pearce's long-time fundraiser Andrea Goff made $306,000 off the Pearce campaign this year. That's an awful lot of TV and other media. In sharp contrast, Governor Martinez's fundraiser earned $7,000 per month—but raised more than twice as much money!

It certainly appears that Goff found the proverbial "bird's nest on the ground" when she signed on with Pearce.

Another Interesting Fact to Consider: Pearce has run for Statewide Office Twice 

We are also hearing from soon-to-be former legislators who are thinking about trying to win their seats back. What has disturbed many legislators and those hoping Republicans can make a comeback next cycle is Pearce’s track record when leading the party. 

Pearce has run statewide twice, in 2008 and 2018. In both elections, Republicans got destroyed in key swing counties and in swing legislative districts. Here's what worries them: 

  • In 2008, Pearce set the all-time record for votes against a statewide Republican candidate, as his Democrat opponent Tom Udall racked up just over a half million votes (505,128) winning 61.3% to 38.7%.
  • With Pearce at the top of the state ticket, Republicans lost three House seats and three Senate seats, for a total of six legislative seats. 
  • In Pearce's second run for statewide office, with his team in full control of every aspect of the state party, Republicans lost an astounding nine House seats.
  • That's 15 legislative seats lost in just two cycles when Pearce has headed the ticket. Sobering.

Whether meant to be a joke or not, it's not surprising that the Democrat party of New Mexico sent out a tweet endorsing Pearce’s candidacy for state chair. 

What they probably mean they plan to do is to make Pearce the actual symbol of the Republican Party in New Mexico. As someone with such a high profile, Pearce will not be like other party chairs who did work behind the scenes and let various candidates be the face of the Republican Party.

Pearce can't do that: he will be the face of the Party. And unlike lower profile chairs, each time Pearce attempts to critique the Lujan Grisham Administration, the Democrats will simply say "sour grapes." That's the difference between being a chair with a low profile and one with a huge profile.

Former Speaker Don Tripp Endorses John Rockwell

Former Speaker of the House Don Tripp has now weighed in on the New Mexico GOP Chairman's race. Tripp sent out an endorsement letter (shown below) in favor of John Rockwell, rather conspicuously breaking with Steve Pearce, albeit in highly diplomatic language that emphasizes his friendship with all candidates. 

Tripp's opinion is significant, not just because he was the first Republican Speaker of the House in 60 years, but because he was positioned to observe the maneuvering by the "Anti-Martinez" Clique that drove the Governor's team out of its leadership role in Republican campaigns AND cost them the House, and cost Tripp the speakership. (Of course Pearce was and is a central player in that clique.)

Tripp is also married to Rosie Tripp, the Republican National Committeewoman for New Mexico who is probably the most popular Republican in the state among the GOP faithful. With Pearce ally, Harvey Yates, serving as Republican National Committeeman, both Tripps have been able to observe the Pearce-Yates shenanigans up close and personal for years.

They haven't said so of course—and  it's important to point out that Rosie Tripp has said nothing and has taken no position on the upcoming contest—but the couple have certainly seen the Pearce-Yates-Billingsley hands at the levers, and it would certainly appear that they surely have not been impressed, at least not favorably.

Pearce is Probably Very Strong—In the Narrow Universe of the GOP Central Committee

Whether Tripp's endorsement will make a bit of difference we are not sure. It would appear that Pearce — at least within the narrow confines and the limited universe of the 400 people on the state central committee—has as strong a machine as any Republican in the state. In that small group of people we would probably have to guess that he wins the upcoming contest.

In a nutshell, this is the difference: Pearce's letter promises to keep his “experienced”’ team together (without any suggestion the team is 3rd or 4th rate), while Rockwell suggests it’s time to roll out the welcome mat to new and particularly young voters. The problem for Rockwell is that the State Central Committee is not made of “new and particularly young voters.” Advantage Pearce. 

And again, the task before the new chairman is so massive we are not sure anyone can meet the challenge, or that anyone even has an actual plan to do so. 

The Tripp Letter

Dear State Central Committee Member:

I wanted to send you a note of endorsement for my friend John Rockwell.  I do this, not just because he is a friend, as I consider myself friends with all the candidates running for party offices this cycle, but because of the direction John wants to take the State Party and the role he wants it to play.

In an email, John wants to concentrate on local elections and build the county parties and give them the tools they need to succeed.  

I like this bottom-up approach to building this army we call the Republican party of New Mexico.  I say army because it needs to be well trained, well equipped and well disciplined to fight the war of ideas, which we must win to keep our democracy.

John believes that if we work on what is needed to win local elections then we can again start to win state, district and national elections.  The key is to win the LOCAL ELECTIONS.  If we have the local machine running well then we will WIN.  

Over the years, campaigns seem to look for the next consultant advisor or a new phone app to make the difference in an election, It never seems to work.  I believe that well planned and organized work by our outnumbered local armies is absolutely essential to having a viable Republican Party in New Mexico. 

I’ve seen a LOT of money spent on consultants who have very little skin in the game.  Their chief interest is spending all the money you can raise regardless of the results.  That’s what they do!  That’s how they make a living.  On the other hand, I believe candidates need to be in charge of their own campaigns and we need to support them with every possible tool to help them win.  And, YES, Quality polling is one of those tools.

I am not on the SCC but I thank you for your commitment to the Party and for being one of the foot - soldiers (like me) that loves this state and this county.  Please support John Rockwell, we need this change of direction to win again.

Don Tripp


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Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

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National Issues

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

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2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

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    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


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