New Mexico Political Journal
mobile icon
New Mexico Political Journal

.

Show Subnavigation
  • Home
  • About NMPJ
    • About
    • Editor
  • Feedback
  • Advertise on NMPJ

FacebookTwitter

If you read New Mexico Political Journal from a Facebook link, and appreciate the coverage of events, please “like” NMPJ on Facebook.

IOWA CAUCUSES. TONIGHT. Our Forecast—Despite the Foolishness of Making Predictions. Bernie Wins. Biden Second. Klobuchar Surges to Third. Warren Bombs. And Bloomberg? He gets Votes, despite Not Running.

02/03/2020

Because of the format—it is not a straightforward election—it is almost foolish to predict the outcome of the Democrat Iowa Caucuses. It is a bunch of people standing around horse-trading for votes.  If you don’t get at least 15% at your local caucus location, you go stand in a corner and consider offers coming from other candidates.

For some precincts, you have to get 16.7% or 25%, and in the very smallest your candidate has to get an outright majority and the other candidates' supporters are not counted at all.

In most instances, quite a number of folks have to decide who their second choice is and glom onto some candidate who has made the cut. Or, it's also possible that they can get together with other also-ran enthusiasts and come up with a high enough total to get one of their first-round losers over the minimum threshold.

Because of all that hubbub, predicting the result is a complete crapshoot. It is a highly distorted and distortable process.

Nonetheless, we will try. And we'll do so based on the notion that it's more or less straightforward, which it isn't.

[Note: The results from Republican Iowa caucuses are almost indistinguishable from primary elections—people just vote. But the Democrat process is that local people are electing 11,402 delegates to the county conventions, then 2,107 delegates to the state convention, and so on until they finally determine who the 41 national convention delegates are. Then there are the 8 additional super-delegates, but that's another story.]

OUR POSITION GOING IN

For the better part of a year now, despite enduring a great deal of ridicule, we have been maintaining that Bernie Sanders must be considered the leader in the Democratic nomination process. We even argued that his heart attacks would not have any effect. That resulted in even more pushback. But we think we have been proved correct on that.

We still believe he is the candidate to beat in Iowa tonight and again in New Hampshire eight days later. We fully acknowledge that we could be dead wrong. There could be a massive surprise win tomorrow, but we’re giving it our best analysis.

Here’s Why, Since April 2019, We Have Thought that Bernie Would Prevail

1)  A Following

Bernie has had a loyal contingent of fans and supporters for five years now. They are young, committed, ideological, and determined. They are convinced that America must have Bernie’s brand of socialism for our nation to survive.

They are also bitter—bitter at the Democrat Party establishment for cheating them in 2016, bitter at people like Donna Brazile for cheating them during the debates.

2) The Emergence of AOC

The energy and the surging, ascending power in the Democratic Party has been that of the Hard Left. (They are the counterparts to the Tea Party/Gun Enthusiasts/Pro-Life/Trumpista element that plays the power role in Republican primaries.) The emergence of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has been a boon to Bernie’s fortunes. Like their counterparts on the right, they may or may not have a general election majority in place, but they have the energy to produce a nominee.

3) ?A Lack of Strong Alternatives

a.  The Original (and to many, the current) Frontrunner, Joe Biden

Almost nine months ago, despite all the overwhelming polls to the contrary, we stated that Joe Biden will not get the nomination. That has gotten us a lot of pushback as well.

However, two things became clear to us:

The Easter Egg Phenomenon.  It was by then obvious that Easter Egg hunt organizers could readily and fairly allow Joe Biden to hide his own Easter eggs because they could have great confidence that he would not remember where he put them. On the campaign trail, it has now become obvious that that assessment is more accurate than ever. A Democratic voter who is paying attention does not want Biden and Biden’s “memory” on the debate stage in the general election.

Ukraine.  Eight months ago, it was already obvious that Biden had huge problems with both his own and his son’s shenanigans in Ukraine. The impeachment inquiry and proceedings have raised the awareness level of that issue by a factor of 1,000.  Again, an intelligent Democrat voter can envision the ads that will appear about that sorry episode. It isn’t good. We think it’s fatal.

b.  The Second Frontrunner, Elizabeth Warren

More than 15 months ago, we posted that Elizabeth Warren is out, but that she simply doesn’t realize it. It was the day that she published her semi-idiotic DNA test, which she touted as “proving” she had “Indian blood.” Yeah, like maybe she was related to Folsom Man—provided that Folsom Man was an Indian. It was a goofy thing to do to start with, but a completely idiotic thing to tout, precisely because it showed her to be LESS likely to be an Indian than the majority of native-born Americans.

While that was enough for us, totally enough, Warren has only compounded her problems since then by lying incessantly about her past—she emphatically stated she never got any advantages by falsely claiming her “minority” status. We now all know she did. So do Democrat voters. They don’t want those ads either.

She also fared badly in designing and scripting an artificial “confrontation” with Bernie Sanders: “You called me a liar.” This was so poorly choreographed that even the national media had to acknowledge it as poorly thought out. It also backfired by reminding people that she has lied—several times. Smart Democrat voters don’t want those ads either. We still believe she is done, and has been for 15 months.

What Happens if we are Correct?

Where Have you Gone, Michael Bloomberg? Our Nation Turns its Lonely Eyes to You! Woo Woo Woo, Woo Woo Woo...

Except that Mayor Mike has not “left and gone away.” He’s here.

The Democrat Party establishment is already scared out of its collective mind at the thought of Bernie as the nominee. They have even jumped through hoops to make an emergency rule change to put Michael Bloomberg on the next debate stage.

Many people say that “money doesn’t win in politics.” Many people say “money wins more often than it doesn’t.” We don’t want to debate those statements. We will just say this: “There is money. Then there is money.”

What that means is, it’s one thing to talk about a Governor candidate or US Senate candidate putting in $20 million, or $50 million, or even $87 million of his or her own money—and winning (or purchasing) and election in Wisconsin, or Ohio, or New Jersey. It’s quite another thing to pour in TWO BILLION DOLLARS!

Never mind Bloomberg's fellow Democrats, even those Trumpistas who defiantly say they’re not scared about that are whistling past the graveyard. No one knows for sure how much THAT AMOUNT of money can or will play out. The fact is no one knows, because that kind of purchasing power has put us into uncharted waters.

In a desperate situation, the entire forces of the Democratic Party establishment, joining together with all the other Democrat candidates and special interest groups, could well turn to Bloomberg as their “Man on horseback”: “Ready booted and spurred to ride, and millions ready saddled and bridled to be ridden.”

THE FIVE PERSON RACE—COULD FORESTALL A DESPERATE TURN TO THE MAN ON THE HORSE

Months ago, while we were eliminating Joe and Elizabeth, we also included “the field” as a possibility. While we acknowledged that someone or a two or three might emerge, we also believed some in the field were foolish and non-starters. Cory Booker was an example. He didn’t get the Obama model.

Obama was vague. He spoke to hope and change and all kinds of imprecise notions and undeveloped mile-wide, inch-deep “ideas,” believing he could get white liberals and independents to engage in massive virtue signaling and to become wildly enthusiastic about “the first black President.” He was right about that.

Booker, however, didn’t get any of that. Neither did Kamala Harris (who we erroneously did believe would be formidable). They both instead jumped out and touted themselves as “the black candidate,” much as Sharpton and Jesse Jackson had done in the 1980s and 1990s. So they bombed. Too dumb to learn the lessons from history.

On the other hand, it was not out of the question that one or more—Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Young, Steyer, Gabbard, or someone else could catch hold. Months later, however, we don't think Buttigieg has, nor do we believe Steyer has, and, though to us she's the best of the lot, we don't think Gabbard has.  

But it does appear that Klobuchar may have caught on with a substantial number of Iowans. And it's possible that Yang has.

OUR BEST ESTIMATE

[Note: We actually called the Iowa Caucus Hotline and asked if voters could choose Michael Bloomberg, even though he's not running in the Caucuses. The answer was "yes." So we believe he will make a showing, at least 2% if not more, despite not running at all and having no organization.]

Bernie Sanders: 24.2

Joe Biden: 19.8

Amy Klobuchar: 16.5

Pete Buttigieg: 14.2

Elizabeth Warren: 13.1

Andrew Yang: 6.5

Tulsi Gabbard: 2.4

Michael Bloomberg: 2.0

Tom Steyer: 1.1

All Others: 0.2


Email us (at nmpj@dfn.com) with your feedback, comments, questions, and ideas.


Intelligent Political Discourse—for the Thoughtful New Mexican

back to list
National Issues

National Issues

Democrats

2016 Presidential Campaign - Democrats

Republicans

2016 Presidential Campaign - Republicans

Jeb Bush gets religion.

"They said he got religion at the end, and I'm glad that he did."  — Tom T. Hall. The Year Clayton Delaney died.

Well, it's official.  Jeb Bush has changed quite of few of his positions on illegal immigration.  The single most significant is that he no longer endorses the "path to citizenship" for those who came here illegally. 

This is, after all, the key portion of any proposal aimed at "reforming" our existing illegal immigration situation.

No sensible citizen can see any point in trying to deport between 12 and 16 million people currently living in America illegally.  And no candidate for any office that we know of supports that.  What the average American wants is for the country to "get a handle on it."  They want it stopped, our borders secured and future illegal immigration prevented.  It is a national security issue.

The Path to Legal Status

The only way to accomplish the above goals, is to identify current illegal immigrants, get them accounted for, have them documented, and placed on a path to legal status.  Neither they nor their children or spouses should live in a state of fear or anxiety.

But a path to "citizenship" is not the right course.  It is not morally or legally correct.  A merciful and compassionate nation can provide the safeguards of legal status without sending the message to the rest of the world that all you have to do is cross our border and you will eventually get to become a citizen, thus circumventing the legal framework scores of millions of Americans have followed, honored and respected.

If someone who is granted legal status eventually wants to become a citizen, that person should have to return to his or her country of origin and wait in line like 20 million people around the world are doing at any given time.  Failing that, America will forever send the signal that anyone in the world can "jump the line," and that there is no reason at all to obey our immigration and naturalization laws.

We Like Jeb Bush

We are glad Jeb Bush has learned this lesson.  He is a fine speaker, and can eloquently explain his positions on complex issue.  If he were not named "Bush" he would be an actual top tier candidate—in all that that title would entail, including likelihood of acceptance and support of and from the American people in the primaries, and in any theoretical general election.  

We also recognize that he already is a de facto top-tier candidate because of his fame and his fundraising.

If he were to be the nominee of the Republican Party we would heartily support him and endorse him.  We hope, however, that he is not, as he does not give the center-right coalition the best chance of winning.

Media Watch

Media Watch

County Government News

County Government News

Cities, Towns and Villages

Cities, Towns and Villages

Judicial Watch

Judicial Watch

Movies, Television, Pop Culture

Movies, Television, Pop Culture

  • Movies, Television, Pop Culture
    Selma   ????? We have now seen the Oscar-nominated movie Selma.   Our earlier allusion to criticism that sounded as though it was in an Oliver Stone category for historical fabrication is some...

Sports

Sports

The Major League Baseball Playoffs are not realistic, and destroy the actual meaning of the sport. 

Major League Baseball is unique in this respect—its postseason is markedly different from the way the game is played normally.  No other major league sport suffers from this flaw.

Not that much is wrong with baseball. In some respects it's the most well thought-out sport there is.  The "perfect game" many aficionados say.

But the Major League Baseball postseason experience is unique in the world of professional sports, and not in a good way. 

In fact the playoffs are flawed in such a way as to detract from the sport itself and diminish the game and what it means to be the world champion of the sport. 

Among the Big Four team sports of North America: football, hockey, basketball and baseball—and all the 122 professional major league teams competing in the NFL, NHL, NBA and MLB respectively—it is in baseball alone that the postseason turns the sport itself on its head and makes it reflect something that it is not.  This article will explain why that happens and why it is wrong-headed.

 

Background on the The Frequency of Play

The 30 teams in both the National Hockey League and the National Basketball Association teams play a very similar schedule.  On average, each team has a day off between games, sometimes two days off.  Though there are back-to-back games, they are relatively infrequent.  NBA teams play between 14 and 22 back-to-back games a season, and for the NHL it usually ranges between 9 and 19. The NFL has a full week between games, the exception being the new Thursday games that each team plays once, leaving them only four days' rest once a year.

But baseball players play every single day.  Ten days straight, then a day off, then seven more games, then a day off, then ten more games.  Typically a baseball team plays 27 games every 30 days.  For the NHL and NBA it would be 14 per month, and for the NFL the number would be 4.

 

Getting to the Playoffs:  It's a grind

In all four sports, getting to the postseason requires a total team effort—in fact an all-out total organizational effort.  Teams must be deep, have bench strength and the capability of moving players in and out of the lineup, and on and off the roster, who can take the place of key players who go down for an injury, or who have to miss games for whatever reason.  While this is true of the other three major sports as well, it is most certainly even more of a concern for baseball teams because of the sheer volume of games in which a team must field a competitive lineup.

Each league's regular season* is a marathon, not a sprint.  NFL teams play for 17 weeks, 16 games.  The NHL has an 82-game season over six months, paralleled by an NBA season of 84 games over the same timeframe. Baseball is the biggest marathon of all—a true test of resilience and endurance—162 games usually starting around the beginning of April and finishing about the end of September.

NHL teams carry 23-man rosters, of which 20 can be active for any particular game.  The NBA is similar, with 15-man rosters of which 13 can be on the bench for a given game. In the NFL, the teams have 53 players on a roster, but only 46 can suit up on game day.  In Major League Baseball, teams have a 25-man active roster, and all 25 are at the park every day.

 

The Postseason Playoffs:  Sport by Sport

The National Football League:

Of the 32 teams, 12 qualify for the playoffs.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season.  Each team plays once a week, the exception being that the four top teams get the first week off.  For a typical qualifier to reach the Super Bowl, the team must play three consecutive weeks.  At that point both remaining teams have two weeks off before the Super Bowl.

In short, the playoffs, with a game each week, reflects the same means of advancement as is present in regular season grind.

The National Hockey League: 

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

 

The National Basketball Association

16 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  The playoffs are conducted in the exact same manner as the regular season: a game, a day off, a game, a day off, a game, a day off, and so on.  Just as in the regular season, there are occasionally two days off.  But the playoffs require the same stamina, the same approach as that required to make the playoffs.

Major League Baseball

10 of the 30 teams qualify for the postseason.  (Although four of those teams qualify only for a one-game do-or-die play-in game.)

Here is where all similarity to baseball ends. 

Unlike the other three sports whose playoffs mirror the test of the regular season, and whose conditions are the same as the regular season, Major League Baseball playoffs in no way resemble the sport itself.  In hockey, basketball and football, the teams win playoff games and reach the pinacle of the sport in exactly the same way that they qualify to try to do so. 

Not so in baseball.  They are two entirely different concepts.  Teams make the playoffs only because they have depth, five-man pitching rotations and can play day-in and day-out at a high level.  But the baseball playoffs suddenly become a kind of "all-star" game within each team's roster.  MLB playoffs are conducted in a way that more closely follows the NBA and the NHL.  Teams have enormous numbers of days off. 

Here's the key point:  No Major League Baseball team could even qualify for the postseason if they played the same way during the regular season that they do in the playoffs.  None.

In the regular season Major League Baseball teams have to use a 5-man starting rotation, with pitchers pitching every 5th day.  There are not enough days off to have even a four-man rotation, let alone a team with three pitchers.  Even the best team in baseball using only a 4-man rotation, would wear them out, and most likely end up with a record of something like 66-96, or 70-92—and that would be if they were otherwise teh best team in the sport.

 

The 2014 Baseball Postseason is Typical

As examples, last year's World Series teams the Kansas City Royals played only 15 games in 30 days, and the San Francisco Giants played only 17 games in 30 days.  The 12 to 15 days off in the non-baseball fantasy world of the MLB postseason, means that teams can turn to three pitchers and give all of them plenty of rest.  But it isn't the way baseball really works.

At one point, the Royals had 5 consecutive days off, and the Giants had 4.  This never happens in the regular season.  Even the All-Star break is only three days.  Very rarely is there anything beyond a one-day break, and even that happens only a couple of times a month. 

What this means is that neither team used the team that got them to the playoffs.  (The NFL, NBA and NHL teams ALL used the very same teams that got them to the playoffs.) 

Baseball teams use a three-man pitching rotation in the playoffs.  Sometimes, they essentially opt for two pitchers only—conceding the likelihood that some of their games are going to be lost—when their third-, or rarely fourth-best pitcher has to face one of their opponents' two-man or three-man rotation members. 

Imagine an NFL team using only one running back and three wide receivers, instead of rotating through their roster in the course of a playoff game—or using only 4 defensive backs and 4 linebackers, instead of rotating 8 or 9 DBs and 6 or 7 linebackers?  In hockey, would a team use only two or three of their forward lines?  Would an NBA team use only the starting five?  They would never make the post season if they tried to present that product to their fans during the regular season.

Those are the equivalents of what Major League Baseball sets up every fall.  No other sport drags its playoffs out in such a way as to completely change the playing field—completely change the dynamics of its game.

Why Does Baseball Do This?

MLB does this because the TV networks want to drag out the games so that they can try to have one game each day  This requires an unnecessary staggering of games, and creates the phenomenon of 15 off-days in a month.

What about travel days?

What about them?  Baseball has travel days constantly.  A team may play in Chicago one day and in Miami the next, or in New York one day and Phoenix the very next day.  Travel days as a routine part of the game are again, a phenomenon of television, and stretching out the playoffs.

In years past, travel days were employed only when necessary. The famous "subway series" games were played on seven consecutive days.  Why?  Because there was no "travel day" required to go from Brooklyn to the Bronx.  Today, they would put in artificial travel days.

Even fairly long train trips didn't necessarily matter.  The 1948 World Series between the Cleveland Indians and the Boston Braves was played in six consecutive days, October 6 & 7 in Boston, October 8, 9 & 10 in Cleveland, and October 11 back in Boston.

This reflects actual baseball, the way the teams play day-in and day-out, and the kind of unique test that baseball presents to its athletes, its managers and management, and to its fans.

In the modern world of charter planes, teams fly from coast to coast to play games on consecutive days.  The artificial "travel day" should be eliminated so that teams can play in the playoffs in the same way that got them there in the first place.


*All these leagues also have pre-seasons and training camps, which add an additional 6-8 weeks to each player's year.


Email us with your feedback, comments, questions and ideas. 

Religious Issues

Religious Issues

  • Religious Issues
    Coming Soon

Copyright New Mexico Political Journal 2015
EMAIL US WITH YOUR FEEDBACK, COMMENTS, QUESTIONS AND IDEAS

.

Loading...